Bihar Exit Polls: RJD to be single largest party with 24% vote share; NDA to win, predicts Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India

Bihar Exit Polls: The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to win the Bihar Assembly elections with 121–141 seats, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB) is expected to trail closely, securing 98–118 seats, according to the Axis My India exit poll findings released on 12 November.

The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar assembly stands at 122. The NDA is expected to win 43% of the vote, followed closely by MGB with 41%, the pollster said.

Among the NDA allies, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) is projected to win 56-62 seats, followed closely by the BJP, which is expected to secure 50-56 seats in the survey. Chirag Paswan's party LJP (RV) is predicted to win 11-16 seats. Incidentally, the BJP and the JD(U) might end up with 18% vote share each. Both parties contested 101 seats each in the elections.

Among MGB or India bloc allies, the RJD is expected to win 67-76 seats with a 24% vote share, emerging as the single-largest party, as it did in the 2020 assembly polls.

The RJD contested 143 seats, largest number of constituencies fought by any party in Bihar elections.

The Congress is projected to win 17-21 seats with a 10% vote share, while the CPI(M-L)-L is projected to win 10-14 seats with about a 5% vote share, according to the Axis My India survey. The VIP, led by Mukesh Sahani, is predicted to win 3-5 seats with a 2% vote share, the survey said.

Exit Poll results have been inaccurate mostly in the past. The actual results of the Bihar elections will be declared on 14 November.

The Axis My India has predicted 0-2 seats with a 4% vote share for Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party and 0-2 seats with a 1% vote share for Asaduddin Owaisi's All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM).

What did other Exit Polls say?

Most of the Exit Polls released on Tuesday predicted the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to win the Bihar Elections 2025, defeating the Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc, comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress, primarily in the two-phase elections.

The NDA is expected to secure between 133 and 167 seats in the 243-member House, according to exit poll results released on Tuesday. Most of the exit polls were reported on 11 November, hours after the second and final phase of voting for the Bihar Assembly Election was over. However, two surveys – Axis My India and Today's Chanakya – released their numbers today, 12 November.

The Mahagathbandhan, or the Grand Alliance comprising the RJD, the Congress, and the Left, is projected to win anywhere between 73 and 102 seats, according to the exit polls. Debutant Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor is projected to secure 0-5 seats.

In the two-phase election, the ruling NDA sought re-election, banking on the 20-year rule of Nitish Kumar in the state and the 11-year rule of the PM Modi government at the Centre. The opposition Mahagathbandhan sought votes based on anti-incumbency, misgovernance, and job promises.