Bihar Election Results: Nitish Kumar or Tejashwi Yadav? What 11 pollsters predict about who’s winning Bihar

Bihar Election Results 2025: The wait is over. The results of the Bihar Assembly Elections will be declared today.

The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is poised to return to power in Bihar after the two-phase assembly elections held earlier this month, according to at least eleven exit polls released over the past two days. While most surveys projected a clear victory for the NDA, one exit poll suggests a closely contested race.

The ruling NDA – comprising the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) sought re-election, banking on the 20-year rule of Nitish Kumar in the state and the 11-year rule of the PM Modi government at the Centre.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan- comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party – sought votes based on anti-incumbency, misgovernance, and job promises in the elections held on 6 and 11 November.

Notably, exit polls have historically been known to be inaccurate, and their results were significantly off from the actual outcomes in the 2015 and 2020 Bihar elections. The actual results of the Bihar Elections 2025 will be known only after the vote counting on 14 November.

What are Exit Polls?

Exit polls are conducted by researchers who seek feedback from voters after the polls close. The predictions are made based on this voter feedback ahead of actual results.

Here is what the 11 exit polls revealed for the Bihar Elections 2025:

1-Dainik Bhaskar: NDA: 145–160 seats, MGB: 73–91, Others: 5–10

2-Polstrat: NDA: 133–148, MGB: 87–102, Others: 3–5

3-Matrize: NDA: 147–167, MGB: 70–90, JSP: 5, Others: 10

4-Vote Vibe: NDA: 125-145, MGB: 95-115 JSP: 0-2 Others:1-3

5-People's Pulse: NDA: 133–159, MGB: 75–101, JSP: 0–5, Others: 2-8

6-People's Insight: NDA: 133-148, MGB: 87-102, JSP: 0-2, Others:3-6

7-DVC Research polls survey: NDA: 137-152, MGB: 83-98, JSP: 2-4.

8-Axis My India: NDA: 121-141, MGB: 98-118, JSP: 0-2

9- Today's Chanakya: NDA: 148-178; MGB: 66-89; JSP: 0

10- Poll Diary: NDA: 184- 209; MGB: 32-49, Others: 1-5

11-JVC: NDA: 135- 150; MGB: 88-103, Others: 3-7

The highest number of seats that any pollster assigned to the NDA is 184-209 by Poll Diary. The lowest numbers for NDA have been predicted by Axis My India, projecting 121-141 seats for the ruling alliance.

The highest number of seats for Mahagathbandhan was projected by Axis My India with 98-118 constituencies. The lowest by poll diary at 32-49 seats.

Key takeaways from the Exit Polls?

Clearly, most pollsters have predicted a victory for the NDA, which means the ruling alliance is set to return to power, defying the anti-incumbency that has persisted for over two decades under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar.

Region-wise, the NDA is performing well across Bihar, except in the Seemanchal region, which is predominantly Muslim-dominated.

Despite the NDA winning the polls, opposition leader Tejashwi Yadav has emerged as the preferred choice as Chief Minister among voters in several polls. For example, Axis My India reports 34% of respondents favouring him, versus 22% for Nitish Kumar.

What did Axis My India predict?

The vote-share predictions show a narrow gap in some polls. The NDA is expected to win around 43% of the votes, while the Mahagathbandhan is forecasted to receive around 41%, according to Axis My India’s prediction. This could mean a closely contested scenario despite NDA’s projected seat advantage.

Debutant Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), was seen by many as the ‘king maker’ in the Bihar contest. However, according to multiple exit polls, it is forecast to win between 0 and 5 seats.