Bihar Exit Poll Results today: How accurate were surveys in 2015, 2020? Which one was the closest?

Bihar Exit Poll Results Today: Voting for the second phase of the Bihar Assembly Elections has concluded with a record 67 per cent turnout on Tuesday, 11 November. Various agencies have begun releasing their exit poll results – the surveys that capture voter sentiment and provide early indications of the likely outcome.

Remember, exit polls have historically been known to be inaccurate. The actual results will be known only after the counting of voters on 14 November. Bihar voted in two phases on November 6 and 11. The results will be announced on 14 November.

The predictions are based on voter feedback collected by survey agencies after the polling. While the idea behind exit polls is to accurately reflect public sentiment before the actual results are announced, their accuracy has been scrutinised in the past.

When to expect for Exit poll results?

Exit poll projections for the elections to the 243-member Bihar assembly will begin from 6:30 PM. Polling agencies such as Today’s Chanakya, Axis My India, CVoter, CSDS, and Times Now will issue their seat estimates once polling ends.

Readers can track exit poll projections, analysis and other detailed information on the predictions here at LiveMint.

Bihar election exit poll predictions are streamed on television news channels, pollster websites, and their social media handles.

Here is a look back at the Exit Poll results of the assembly elections held in Bihar in 2020 and 2015. The exit polls in 2020 incorrectly predicted a narrow victory for the Mahagathbandhan. In 2015, pollsters were incorrect in predicting the results against the then JD(U)-RJD combine, commonly referred to as the Grand Alliance.

Bihar Exit Poll 2020 Results

In 2020, an average of 11 exit polls predicted a narrow win for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, giving it 125 seats – three seats more than the majority mark in the 243-seat Assembly. The exit polls gave 108 seats for the JD(U)-led NDA. On the result day, the NDA won the closely contested election, securing 125 seats compared to the Mahagathbandhan’s 110 seats.

That year, the undivided LJP contested independently, while the Mukesh Sahani-led VIP, now part of the Opposition, was part of the NDA.

So when compared to actual results, the poll of exit polls gave the NDA 17 seats fewer than it actually got, while the Mahagathbandhan was given 15 seats more than it actually won.

Patriotic Voter, P-Marq and ABP News-CVoter came the closest in their predictions, with all three projecting an NDA majority. News 18-Today’s Chanakya was the most inaccurate with its prediction of 55 seats for the NDA and 180 seats for the Mahagathbandhan.

Three agencies – Republic-Jan Ki Baat, India Today-Axis My India, and News 18-Today’s Chanakya – had predicted an outright majority for the Mahagathbandhan.

Bihar Exit Poll 2015 Results

In 2015, Lalu Prasad's RJD and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) contested the assembly elections as the Grand Alliance along with the Congress. The NDA in that election was led by the BJP and included the undivided LJP, the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (now the Rashtriya Lok Morcha, led by Upendra Kushwaha), and Jitan Ram Manji’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular).

In the exit poll predictions, an average of six surveys predicted a narrow win for the Mahagathbandhan, giving it a majority mark of 122 by 1 seat. The poll of polls gave the BJP-led NDA 114 seats.

Which Exit Poll got it right in 2015?

However, as it turned out, the RJD-JD(U)-Congress Mahagathbandhan won comfortably with 178 seats. The NDA ended with just 58 seats, proving the exit polls wrong once more.

As many as three polling agencies correctly predicted a Mahagathbandhan win; two had suggested a win for the NDA. One survey had predicted a hung Assembly in Bihar in 2015. When compared to the results, six polls underestimated the Mahagathbandhan’s performance by 55 seats and overestimated the NDA’s performance by 56 seats.

The CNN IBN-Axis poll was the most accurate among exit polls. The survey predicted the Mahagathbandhan’s win with its tally of 176 seats. It had predicted 64 seats for the NDA.

The alliance, however, broke in 2017 and Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA fold to form a new government with the BJP.