Bihar Exit Polls 2025: NDA projected to win big, but this survey bucks the trend, calls win for INDIA bloc

Bihar Exit Polls 2025: At least nine exit polls have predicted a significant win for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the JD(U) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in the two-phase Bihar assembly election held this week.

One pollster, however, stood out among the surveys released on Tuesday. This survey by local news portal Journo Mirror predicted that the Mahagathbandhan or the INDIA bloc, led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress party, would win.

Sharing the survey on its Instagram handle, which has about 266,000 followers, Journo Mirror predicted that the Mahagathbandhan or INDIA bloc would win 130-140 seats. The majority mark in the 234-member Bihar assembly is 122.

The pollster predicted that the NDA government, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, would lose power and win between 100 and 110 seats. The Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) of political strategist-turned-leader Prashant Kishor and other parties would get 0-3 seats while Asaduddin Owaisi's AIMIM could get 3-4 seats, the pollster predicted.

Journo Mirror is a Hindi-language news service, active at least since 2021 and covers contemporary Indian political and social issues, focusing on subjects related to marginalised communities, such as Dalits and Muslims. It has 66.6 thousand followers on X and 266,000 followers on Instagram.

Exit Poll results have proven wrong most of the time. The actual results of the Bihar elections will be declared on 14 November. Most exit polls had got it wrong in the 2020 and 2015 Bihar assembly polls too.

What did the Exit Polls say?

Most of the exit polls released on Tuesday, predicted that the NDA, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal-United (JDU), would win between 133 and 167 seats in the 243-member House.

The Mahagathbandhan, or the Grand Alliance comprising the RJD, the Congress, and the Left, is projected to win anywhere between 73 and 102 seats, according to the exit polls. Debutant Jan Suraaj Party led by Prashant Kishor is projected to secure 0-5 seats.

In the Bihar Election 2025 held in two phases on 6 and 11 November, the ruling NDA sought re-election, banking on the 20-year rule of Nitish Kumar in the state and the 11-year rule of the PM Modi government at the Centre.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan sought votes on the basis of anti-incumbency, misgovernance, and job promises.