BJP surge in West Bengal, neck-and-neck fight for Stalin in Tamil Nadu - What opinion poll predicts

An opinion poll predicting the outcome of the upcoming West Bengal and Tamil Nadu assembly elections 2026 has good news for Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee, giving her party an edge over the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is hoping to unseat Didi. The BJP, however, is set to surge, painting more seats saffron.

The opinion poll has also predicted a neck-and-neck contest between DMK chief MK Stalin and the AIADMK-led opposition in Tamil Nadu. The opinion poll has also predicted the possible outcome in the Kerala and Assam assembly elections.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) on Sunday, 15 March, announced the schedule for assembly elections in four states – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Kerala – and one Union Territory (UT) – Puducherry.

As per the EC schedule, voting in Assam, Kerala and Puducherry will be held on a single day on 9 April, in two phases in West Bengal on 23 and 29 April, and in Tamil Nadu on 23 April. The counting of the votes on all 824 seats across four states and one UT will be held on 4 May.

As the Election Commission announced voting dates, the opinion poll laid out its predictions for all states going to the polls.

Opinion poll prediction on West Bengal:

West Bengal is going to the polls in two phases – 23 and 29 April. It has 294 members in the Legislative Assembly, and as per the new opinion poll, Mamata Banerjee's TMC may make a comeback in the 2026 election.

While the TMC is predicted to cross the majority mark of 149 and win between 155 and 170 seats, the BJP surge is extraordinary.

In the last elections, the BJP had won 64 seats. This year, the alliance is expected to win between 100 and 115 seats.

TMC: 155–170

NDA: 100–115

Opinion poll prediction on Tamil Nadu:

In Tamil Nadu, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)-BJP-led NDA is projected to form the government, winning between 114 and 127 seats. The majority mark in the Tamil Nadu election 2026 is 118.

As per the opinion poll, while the BJP is expected to win 114-127 seats in the 234-member assembly, the DMK alliances combined are predicted to win 104-114 seats, a few seats short of crossing the majority mark.

BJP+: 114–127

DMK+: 104–114

TVK: 06–12

Opinion poll prediction for Assam, Kerala

For Assam, the opinion poll has predicted an easy sweep for the Himanta Biswa Sarma-led BJP. Of the 126 seats, the BJP is predicted to win 96-98 and the Congress may win 26-28.

BJP+: 96–98,

CONG+: 26–28

In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) is projected to win 61-71 seats in the 140-member assembly, while the Congress-led alliance, the United Democratic Front (UDF), is predicted to come closer with wins on 58-69 seats.

LDF: 61–71,

UDF: 58–69,

NDA: 02–02