Did the NDA break through in Muslim-dominated areas? Here’s the breakdown

The BJP-led NDA is on track for a landslide victory in the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections, having secured 204 seats in the 243-member Assembly, surpassing the crucial majority mark. This leaves the Opposition Mahagathbandhan reeling with a lead of only 32 seats.

How Did the NDA Perform in Bihar’s Muslim-Dominated Constituencies?

In a striking shift in Bihar’s political landscape, early counting trends from Friday revealed the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) making unexpected headway in several Muslim-majority constituencies—regions that have historically been aligned with secular formations. The performance marks a notable recalibration of voter behaviour and hints at deeper structural changes within state politics.

Is the NDA Gaining Ground in Muslim-Majority Seats?

Initial figures indicate that the NDA is on track to secure at least 16 Muslim-dominated seats, a development that would have been previously unimaginable in election cycles. Within the alliance, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) has emerged as the primary beneficiary, securing around eight more seats than its 2020 tally.

Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas) is also registering notable gains, leading in six constituencies with significant Muslim electorates.

Why Is the Mahagathbandhan Struggling in Its Strongholds?

Despite a campaign centred on job creation and pitching a fresh face for the Chief Minister’s post, the Mahagathbandhan (MGB) appears unable to hold on to its traditional bases. Latest trends suggest the RJD is set to lose seven Muslim-dominated seats it had won in 2020, while the Congress is trailing in four such seats it previously held.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, the RJD had captured 18 of these constituencies, while the Congress had secured six.

What Role Does the Muslim Vote Historically Play?

Muslim voters have long supported secular alliances in Bihar. Data from a 2022 state survey showed that Muslims constitute 17.7% of the population, and historically, nearly 80% of the community voted for the MGB in 2015, with 77% repeating the pattern in 2020.

This consistent backing formed the backbone of the coalition’s electoral arithmetic, until now.

What Explains This Electoral Shift?

Two strategic dynamics underpin the NDA’s current success:

1. Alliance consolidation within the NDA, which created a unified pro-incumbency bloc.

2. Fragmentation of the Opposition vote, facilitated by the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) and AIMIM, which weakened the MGB’s ability to convert anti-incumbency sentiment into votes.

Poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, once touted as an “X factor”, has effectively collapsed. In contrast, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM has turned out to be the surprise “dark horse”, leading in six seats, buoyed by concentrated Muslim support in Seemanchal.

How Did the NDA Build a More Diverse Coalition?

The NDA’s strategy reflects a meticulously crafted caste-community architecture:

• The BJP consolidated its traditional base among upper castes.
• The JD(U) brought together EBCs, non-Yadav OBCs, Mahadalits, and mobilised women voters.
• The LJP(RV) focused on the Pasi and other Dalit communities.
• Smaller allies attracted support from Dalit and Koeri groups.

Against this broad alliance, the MGB’s mobilisation—rooted in the RJD’s Yadav-Muslim base, the Congress, and Left parties—proved numerically insufficient.