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The campaign for the high-profile Karnataka assembly elections 2023 ended on 8 May at 5 pm. Since the past few days, the poll-bound state witnessed star campaigners from all three major political parties - BJP, Congress and JD(S) have been holding mega rallies and road shows in a bid to woo the voters.
Now an opinion poll has showed that Congress would emerge as the single largest party in the upcoming Karnataka elections on 10 May. The opinion poll was conducted by India TV-CNX opinion poll. As per the projections, Congress could likely win 105 seats while the ruling BJP could see 85 seats. The opinion poll also projected Janata Dal Secular (S) may win 32 seats while others may win two seats.
With just two days left for the elections, the opinion poll also showed though Congress could win the elections however the party may not enjoy full majority.
As per the projects, Congress may get 40.32 percent seats while BJP may get 35-5 percent seats, followed by JD-S at 17.81 percent seat.
As per cast and community wise votes, the opinion poll projected that Congress may get 78 percent of Muslim votes, Kuruba (75.3 percent), Lingayat (15.11 percent), Vokkaliga (17.57 percent), SC (40.56 percent), OBC (34.58 percent), ST (42.35 percent). In comparison to this, BJP could get 2.07 percent Muslim votes, Kuruba (15.14 per cent), Lingayat (75.8 percent), Vokkaliga (17.39 percent), SC (39.6 percent), OBC (51.7 percent), ST (32.18 percent). The projection also showed that JD-S may get 56 percent votes from Vokkaliga.
The opinion poll projections also showed Congress leader and former CM Siddaramaiah as people's first choice for CM's post with 32.2 percent votes while 26.83 percent preferred Basavaraj Bommai. Other leaders like former CM HD Kumaraswamy (16.37 percent), BS Yeddyurappa (10.97 percent) and DK Shivakumar (7 percent).
Speaking of region wise projection, the opinion poll survey showed both BJP and Congress will likely 15 seats each in Greater Bengaluru while in Central Karnataka BJP may win 13 and Congress may win only 8 seats. The opinion survey projected majority of seats for congress from Hyderabad-Karnataka region with 32 seats out of 40 seats while BJP may win only 6 seats, JD-S with 2 seats. In Old Mysore, of the total 62 seats, Congress may win 26, JD-S 28 and BJP 7 seats. In coastal Karnataka, of the total 19 seats, BJP may win 15 while Congress 4 seats. Other region like Bombay Karnataka which has a total of 50 seats, the BJP may win 29 while Congress 20.
However, this is not the first opinion poll survey which predicted win for the Congress party. According to the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, the Congress party is expected to win the majority of seats and form the government in Karnataka, with the BJP suffering significant losses and the Janata Dal (Secular) performing poorly.
Another survey by India Today-CVoter predicted that the ruling BJP is anticipated to lose the Karnataka assembly election. The opinion poll predicts that the BJP may only secure 74-86 seats, which is a decrease of 24 seats from the number they won in 2018. Eedina, a Kannada outlet, conducted a pre-poll survey that predicted majority for the Congress party with 32-140 seats, while the BJP is expected to secure 57-65 seats.
Only opinion poll survey by The Zee News-Matrize predicted that BJP will emerge as the party with the largest number of seats.
The Karnataka assembly elections will be held in a single phase on May 10, with the counting of votes scheduled on May 13. The majority mark to form the government is 113 seats. Notably, Karnataka is the only State in the South where BJP is in power.
Meanwhile, the EC in its advisory to political parties also stated no party or candidate should publish any advertisement in the print media on poll day and one day prior without clearance from the media certification and monitoring committee.
"No political party or candidate or any other organisation or person shall publish any advertisement in the print media on poll day and one day prior to poll day unless the contents of political advertisement are got pre-certified by them from the MCMC at the state/district level, as the case may be," the advisory stated. Forty-eight hours before the end of polling are considered the silence period.
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