Karnataka win a big boost for Congress ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha polls - Explained

The Congress secured a resounding win in the Karnataka Assembly elections on Saturday, with many dubbing it a precursor to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Congress leaders as well as prominent Opposition faces linked the results to upcoming elections with TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee going as far as to predict that the BJP would secure less than a 100 seats. Meanwhile NCP chief Sharad Pawar claimed that the results "present a picture" of next year's Lok Sabha elections.

To recap Saturday's developments, the Congress exceeded exit poll expectations to secure a landslide victory in the southern state while the BJP scored significantly lower than its 2018 performance. As many exultant party leaders pointed out, this effectively meant that country now had a “BJP mukt south India”. The win also comes at a time when the party is seeking momentum ahead of assembly polls in four states - Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana. 

With Opposition parties exploring a united front against the BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress will seek to emerge as a pivot of such efforts. The victory will also help Congress counter criticism that it mostly loses in a direct fight with the BJP.

ALSO READ: Karnataka Election Result LIVE Updates

The victory is also significant for Congress for the margin of its success and the coherence of its efforts. While this is the second time in six months that the Congress has wrested a state away from the BJP this is the party's first ‘big’ state victory since 2018. In both states the Congress had built its campaign on local issues.

Simply put, the Karnataka victory has put the Congress back in the game for general elections and helped it reclaim some space in the rather fragmented Opposition ranks. While it now remains to be seen whether the Congress will employ similar tactics in other states and the Lok Sabha polls, the template, if perfected, would hold the Congress in good stead later this year.

The Congress ran an effective campaign built around its "five guarantees" and sought to keep the focus on local issues and "failings" of the BJP government in the southern state.

The Karnataka victory has several lessons for the Congress in its battles ahead, with "collective fight" and "strong state leadership" among the factors that worked for the party.

Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Yatra is also thought to have played a positive role. Party leader Randeep Surjewala said the Congress won almost 85% of the seats that Gandhi visited during his yatra. Rahul Gandhi was in the state for over 20 days in September-October last year.

(With inputs from agencies)