Kerala Elections 2026: Pinarayi Vijayan vs VD Satheesan vs Shashi Tharoor—who is top CM choice? New survey offers hint

As the Kerala Assembly Elections 2026 are around the corner, a new pre-poll survey revealed who the public wants as the next chief minister of Kerala. It's not the CPI(M) leader and two-time CM Pinarayi Vijayan.

A State Vote Vibe survey released on 7 March showed that Congress leader and Leader of Opposition in the Kerala Assembly, VD Satheesan, was the top choice for the Kerala CM post, with around 25% of respondents voting in his favour.

Pinarayi Vijayan, the current chief minister of Kerala, emerged as the second-best choice. As many as 21% of those surveyed chose him for the post of Kerala CM.

Only 9.2% of those surveyed chose Congress leader and Thiruvananthapuram MP Shashi Tharoor, placing him in fifth position on the 'next CM' choice list — below BJP's Rajeev Chandrashekhar, who received 10% of the votes polled in the survey.

Kerala Elections 2026 — full schedule

The Election Commission announced on Sunday, 15 March, the dates for the elections in five states and a Union Territory.

The election in Kerala will be held in one phase. The voting will take place on 9 April, and the results will be announced on 4 May.

The Congress-led UDF and CPI(M)-led LDF are the prime contenders in the upcoming Kerala Assembly polls.

While the CPI(M)-led LDF is eyeing a third consecutive term, the BJP, which failed to win any seat in the last assembly polls in Kerala, is hoping to gain some ground this time.

What else did the survey reveal?

1. Who's popular among males? As per the survey, 23% males chose Pinarayi Vijayan as their CM choice, while 28% chose VD Satheesan and 7% chose Tharoor.

2. Who's popular among women? Among women, 21% chose Pinarayi Vijayan, 23% chose VD Satheesan, and 12% chose Tharoor.

3. Community-wise popularity: The survey showed that Pinarayi Vijayan was popular among the Scheduled Caste and Other Backward Class categories, while VD Satheesan was most preferred by the Muslim and Christian communities.

4. Corruption: The majority of 34% of those polled believed the allegations of corruption, misgovernance and financial extravagance against the LDF government to be 'very true'.

5. Welfare schemes: As many as 44.5% expressed satisfaction with the LDF government's welfare schemes.

Why might VD Satheesan be leading?

Several reports suggested anti-incumbency against Pinarayi Vijayan's government in Kerala. However, the Kerala chief minister exuded confidence that the Left Democratic Front will win more seats in the upcoming state elections than in 2021.

"There is no anti-incumbency in the state. Travel anywhere in the state and tell me if there is anti- incumbency. People have good views of the government and our policy. They have a strong view that only we can take the state forward. In 2026, we will win more seats than in 2021," Vijayan said at the NDTV Keralam Power Play summit.

What happened in 2021 Kerala Assembly Elections?

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the LDF retained power, winning 99 of the 140 seats, while the UDF secured 41. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has no representation in the outgoing Assembly.

Pinarayi Vijayan has been the chief minister of Kerala since 25 May 2016. He held the post twice — the first time from 25 May 2016 to 5 May 2021. He became the CM again on 20 May 2021.

Vijayan won the 2021 Kerala Assembly poll from Dharamadam seat with 59.61% vote share, defeating the Congress' C Raghunathan.