Kerala Exit Polls 2026: UDF set for comeback, to end Pinarayi Vijayan's 10-year rule | Poll of Polls
Kerala Exit Polls 2026: Axis My India predicted 78-90 seats for the UDF and 49-62 seats for the LDF. MATRIZE said the UDF may win 70-75 seats, beating the LDF in a closely fought election.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is likely to return to power in Kerala, with almost all exit polls giving an edge to the UDF in the 2026 assembly polls. Axis My India predicted 78-90 seats for the UDF and 49-62 seats for the Left Democratic Front (LDF). Meanwhile, MATRIZE said the UDF may win 70-75 seats, beating the LDF in a closely fought election.
Warning: Exit polls are not the final results. The exit poll results may vary from the Election Commission's official results, which will be released on 4 May 2026.
Understanding majority mark and key coalitions
The Kerala Assembly has 140 seats. A political party or coalition needs to win 71 seats, comfortably crossing the majority mark, to form a government in the state.
All the exit polls released on Wednesday, 29 April, showed a massive win for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala. From Axis My India to MATRIZE to P-Marq, many of them predicted more than 70-71 seats for the Congress's UDF in a major turnaround. Today's Chanakya will release Kerala exit polls on April 30.
UDF: CONG, IUML, KEC, RSP, KC (J), CMP, RMPI, IND (Support by UDF)
LDF: CPIM, CPI, KEC (M), NCP(SP), RJD, ISJD, INL, KEC (B), RSPL, CONG (S), IND (Support by LDF)
NDA: BJP, BDJS, TTP, IND (Support by NDA)
Others: BSP, AAP, SDPI, SUCI (C), Small Parties & Independents
Congress to end Pinarayi Vijayan's 10-year rule? Poll of Polls
The Poll of Polls predicted 77 seats — six more than the majority mark needed to form the Kerala government — for the UDF, and 64 seats for the ruling LDF.
| Exit Poll | LDF | UDF | NDA | OTH |
| Axis My India | 49-62 | 78-90 | 0-3 | 0 |
| MATRIZE | 60-65 | 70-75 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| P-Marq | 62-89 | 71-79 | 1-4 | 0-3 |
| Peoples Pulse | 55-65 | 75-85 | 0-3 | - |
| Vote Vibe | 58-68 | 70-80 | - | 0-4 |
| Peoples Insight | 58-68 | 66-76 | 10-14 | 0-1 |
| Poll of Polls | 64 | 77 | 5 | - |
Pinarayi Vijayan has been in power in Kerala since 25 May 2016. He served as the 12th Chief Minister of Kerala. He also served as the secretary of the Kerala state committee of the CPI(M) from 1998 to 2015.
If exit polls come true, Vijayan's LDF will likely be ousted by the Congress-led UDF. The Congress last held power in the state under the leadership of then CM Oommen Chandy from 2011 to 2016.
Axis My India's prediction in detail
Pradeep Gupta's agency predicted a clear victory for the UDF, giving the Congress' coalition 78-90 seats of 140 seats in the Kerala Assembly. It predicted 49-62 seats for the LDF and 0-3 seats for the BJP-led NDA.
Axis My India predicted 44 per cent vote share for the UDF, 39 per cent for the LDF and 14 per cent for the NDA.
> Region-wise seat share:
Kochi (29): 22-26 seats for UDF; 3-7 seats for LDF
Malabar (63 seats): 36-38 seats for UDF; 25-27 seats for LDF
Travancore (48): 25-29 seats for UDF; 18-22 seats for LDF
> Who is the top CM choice for Kerala? Although the LDF is likely to lose power in the state, as per the exit polls, Pinarayi Vijayan remains the top choice for the Chief Minister's post, followed by VD Satheesan with 21 per cent voting in his favour.
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