Magic numbers to win: Key majority marks in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Assam, Kerala, Puducherry and what exit polls say

To form a government in West Bengal, Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry Union Territory, a party or alliance needs to cross the majority mark, aka the magic number, in the assembly. The majority mark is more than 50 per cent of the total seats in the respective Legislative Assembly.

Since voting in all states and one Union Territory have now concluded and exit polls are out, let's see how many seats a party or alliance needs to win the elections.

WEST BENGAL

West Bengal has a 294-member Legislative Assembly, and the magic number for a party to win the election is 148.

What did exit polls predict for West Bengal?

In their exit poll projections, most pollsters on Wednesday, 29 April, predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win the state in the 2026 Assembly elections, whose polling concluded on Wednesday.

Chanakya Strategies has projected 150-160 Assembly seats in the BJP's corner, while the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is projected to win 130-140 seats.

Matrize predicted that the BJP is winning the Bengal Assembly with 146-161 seats and  the TMC is projected to win 125 to 140 seats. The exit poll by Poll Diary has projected 142 to 171 Assembly seats in the BJP's corner, while placing Mamata Banerjee's party with 99 to 127 seats in West Bengal.

TAMIL NADU

Tamil Nadu has an Assembly of 234 members and the majority mark to win the election in the state is 118.

What did the exit polls show?

Most pollsters have projected that the incumbent CM MK Stalin-led Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) alliance would win Tamil Nadu in the 2026 Assembly elections. With that, the DMK will return for a second term in the state.

The exit poll by Peoples Pulse has projected 125-145 Assembly seats in DMK's corner, while All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is likely to win 65 to 80 seats.

Matrize has predicted DMK and allies winning 122-132 seats, while AIADMK and allies are projected to win 80 to 100 seats.

The exit poll by P-MARQ has projected 125-145 Assembly seats in DMK's corner, while placing AIADMK with 60 to 70 seats of the total 234 Assembly seats in the state.

The exit poll by People Insight has projected 120-140 Assembly seats for the DMK-led alliance, while placing AIADMK with 60 to 70 seats of the total 234 Assembly seats in the state.

ASSAM AND KERALA

Assam has an Assembly of 126 members, while Kerala has 140. The majority mark in these states is 64 and 71, respectively.

Exit poll predictions for Assam and Kerala

Several exit polls on Wednesday predicted a thumping victory for the BJP in Assam.

In Assam, Axis My India predicted a sweep for the BJP, forecasting 88-100 seats for the BJP and its allies and 24-36 seats for the Congress and its partners.

Peoples Pulse predicted that the NDA would get 68-72 seats while the Congress plus would secure in the range of 22-26 seats.

Matrize said the NDA is likely to get between 85-95 seats and the Congress and its allies 25-32.

In Kerala, Axis My India forecast that the UDF would get 78-90 seats, LDF 49-62 and NDA 0-3. Peoples Pulse predicted that the Congress-led UDF would get 75-85 seats, the LDF 55-65 and the NDA 0-3.

Matrize forecast 60-65 seats for the LDF, 70-75 seats for the UDF and 3-5 seats for the NDA. Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats, with the magic mark being 71.

PUDUCHERRY

Puducherry has 30 Assembly seats and the majority mark to win the Union Territory is 16.

What exit polls predicted

In Puducherry, Axis My India predicted 16-20 seats for the NDA and 6-8 for the DMK-Congress. It said the TVK is likely to get 2-4 seats in the assembly. There are 30 elected seats in Puducherry.

(With agency inputs)