Mamata vs BJP: Who do voters want as West Bengal’s next CM? Is illegal migration an issue? Findings from a latest survey
Assembly Elections: As West Bengal gears up for its assembly elections, a recent survey reveals that Mamata Banerjee holds a significant lead over BJP's Suvendu Adhikari. With issues such as unemployment and illegal migration shaping voter sentiment, the political landscape is intensifying.
Assembly Elections: West Bengal is all set for the assembly elections, scheduled for a few weeks from now. The Election Commission will announce the election schedule for West Bengal, along with Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Assam and Puducherry, within a week.
The West Bengal election is being seen as a fight between the ruling Trinamool Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The TMC, led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, has been in power in West Bengal since 2011.
Who do people want to see as the next chief minister? At least 42% of the survey respondents prefer three-time chief minister Mamata Banerjee to continue, while 19% want BJP's Suvendu Adhikari to be the chief minister, according to the latest survey findings.
The survey 'West Bengal Elections 2026: Round 2 -Thematic' by Vote Vibe, Mamata Banerjee remains the dominant force in West Bengal ahead of elections. The party’s Muslim vote is firm and has won the perception battle during Enforcement Directorate raids on IPAC, it said.
Among issues, unemployment affects about 36% of respondents, while law and order affects 19%.
Regarding the Bharatiya Janata Party's allegations that the TMC was facilitating illegal migration, about 47% found it 'true', while 33% preferred to be neutral or couldn't say.
For 38% of respondents, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) exercise in Bengal is aimed at weeding out illegal voters, whereas for 29% it is pretty much a routine exercise.
Over 34% of respondents rated the performance of the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC government 'excellent' while 18% called it ‘very poor’.
What happened in the 2021 Assembly Elections?
The 2021 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election was held in eight phases between 27 March and 29 April to elect all 294 members of the Legislative Assembly during the COVID-19 pandemic
The incumbent Trinamool Congress government led by Mamata Banerjee won the election by a landslide, despite opinion polls generally predicting a close race against the Bharatiya Janata Party, which became the official opposition with 77 seats. For the first time in the history of Bengal, no members from the Congress and the Communist Party were elected.
On TMC - BJP strengths and weaknesses
The survey also lists the strengths and weaknesses of the TMC and the BJP.
On risks, it said the TMC is seeing erosion of SC/ST votes and the alienation of youth. Unemployment and Mamata Banerjee’s equation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi highlight the party’s weaknesses.
For the BJP, the survey found, the illegal Immigration narrative resonates. The survey also found that SIR is largely seen as a legitimate exercise, but fragmented CM choices are among the BJP's weak points, as per the survey.
When is the West Bengal Election expected?
The Election Commission is expected to announce the poll schedule for assembly elections in Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry after PM Modi's visit to Assam. PM Modi is in Assam today and tomorrow. The dates are expected to be announced on Sunday or Monday.
The 2021 election in West Bengal was held in March-April.
The Election Commission on Thursday appointed returning officers for all 294 assembly constituencies in poll-bound West Bengal.
For the first time in West Bengal, the poll panel has upgraded returning officers for 152 constituencies to sub-divisional magistrates (SDMs), equivalent or higher-level officers, as in the rest of India.
The poll panel, in a notification issued on Thursday, appointed SDMs, equivalent or higher-level returning officers for all assembly constituencies in the state.
- Mamata Banerjee leads with 42% support in the upcoming elections.
- Unemployment is a major concern for 36% of voters.
- The perception of illegal migration allegations significantly impacts BJP's appeal.
About the Author
Gulam Jeelani is Political Desk Editor at LiveMint with over 16 years of experience covering national and international politics. Based in New Delhi, Jeelani delivers impactful political narratives through breaking stories, in-depth interviews, and analytical pieces at LiveMint since February 2024. The expertise in video production fuels his current responsibilities, which include curating content and conducting video interviews for an expanding digital audience.<br><br> Jeelani also travels during elections and key political events and has covered assembly elections in key states apart from national elections. He has previously worked with The Pioneer, Network18, India Today, News9Plus and Hindustan Times.<br><br> Jeelani’s tenure at LiveMint and previous experience at print and digital newsrooms have honed his skills in creating compelling text and video stories, explainers, and analysis that resonate with a diverse viewership.<br><br> Before moving to New Delhi in 2015, Jeelani was based in Uttar Pradesh, where he worked for five years as a reporter. In 2018, Jeelani was one of the two Indian journalists selected for the Alfred Friendly Fellowship in the US. There, he attended training workshops on reporting and data journalism, and he was attached to the Minneapolis Star Tribune in Minnesota, where he worked as a reporter.<br><br> Jeelani is a Bachelor's in Chemistry and holds a Masters Degree in journalism and mass communication from Aligarh Muslim University. Outside work, he enjoys poetry, cricket and movies.
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