
Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor has predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is unlikely to win between 60 and 70 seats in the upcoming Bihar election. The former election strategist said that the saffron party ‘cannot stand on its own feet’ in Bihar until it has a face in the state.
"After winning the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, the BJP attempted to form an alliance with smaller parties and contest the entire state of Bihar in the 2015 elections. They fought for more than 150 seats. But they were limited to 54-55 seats. After that, the BJP realised that it had to work with someone like Nitish. Kishor told Mint during an interview while campaigning in Bihar.
Assembly Elections in Bihar are scheduled to be held in two phases – November 6, 11. The result will be announced on November 14. The BJP is contesting elections as part of the National Democratic Alliance with Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United). The two parties are contesting 101 seats each in the election to the 243-member Bihar assembly.
“The BJP cannot stand on its own feet in Bihar until it has a face. They don't have a face in Bihar,” Kishor said.
In the 2020 Bihar elections, the BJP contested 110 seats and won 74, one fewer than the 75 won by the RJD, the single largest party in the House. The JD-U won 43 seats of the 115 it contested.
“It is unlikely that the BJP will win 60-70 seats on its own in this region. This time it is contesting 101 seats with allies. A political party, which calls itself the world's largest party, led by Modi, Shah, and others, lacks the strength to contest 243 seats in Bihar. Winning and forming a government are different,” said Kishor, whose party has fielded candidates across 243 seats.
If you are fighting for 100 seats, then the BJP cannot win in Bihar on its own, Kishor explained. “You need 120 seats to win Bihar,” he said.
Kishor's prediction assumes significance as the BJP has fought most of the previous elections without a CM face. In Delhi, for example, where the BJP returned to power after 27 years earlier this year, the party contested without a CM face. And when it won, Rekha Gupta, a virtually unknown leader, became the CM.
Even in states like Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP selected its Chief Ministers after the results were announced.
In Bihar, the BJP has insisted that it is contesting elections under Nitish Kumar's leadership. Analysts say that the late Sushil Modi, who has been deputy CM of Bihar, was the last big leader of the saffron party in Bihar. The BJP has never had a Chief Minister in Bihar.
“For now, we are contesting under Nitish Kumar’s leadership. After the elections, all allies will sit together and decide on their leader,” Home Minister Amit Shah said last month.
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