Twenty years on, why Nitish Kumar remains Bihar’s most enduring political brand - a ground assessment

Bihar Election Results 2025: Rakesh Kumar, who has been driving a commercial taxi for the last five years in Patna, is a big Nitish Kumar fan. Kumar, whose two children and wife live in his ancestral village of Katrisarai in Nalanda district – 90 km away – thinks Nitish has done what no one else has.

“Could you have imagined Nalanda University, pucca roads, and electrification in Bihar twenty years ago?” says Kumar, who is not annoyed at Nitish Kumar’s ‘U-turns’ to stay in power.

“So, what he switched sides, he has made our lives easier. He is like a family member to us. Do you know how expensive the Internet was a few years ago? Do you know the difficulties we faced in getting gas cylinders?” says Kumar as he drives his Maruti Dzire from Patna to Samastipur, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to address a political rally on 24 October.

The Janata Dal (United) has experienced a continuous decline in its electoral performance. The party won just 43 seats in the 2020 election, down from the 71 seats it had won in the 2015 election.

As votes are being counted on Friday, the Janata Dal (United) has emerged as a kingmaker yet again, winning about 79 seats in early trends. This clearly shows that Nitish Kumar, who has had his proverbial ‘nine lives’ – has sucessfully managed to dodge anti-incumbency since 2005 when he became the Chief Minister for the first time.

Speaking with people on the ground in Bihar, it was clear that issues such as migration, job opportunities, and inadequate civic and educational facilities are not at the forefront of people's minds. It is, as long-time Bihar watchers would attest, a matter of caste and community. However, there was one factor that transcended all these aspects, and it is the brand of Nitish Kumar.

Driver Kumar is from Nalanda, Nitish Kumar’s home turf. Miles away from Patna, Rehan Ahmad from Kochadhaman in Kishanganj agrees. “Nitishji has worked for everyone. We haven’t seen communal politics in his tenure,” says Ahmad, whose close relative is a Jan Suraaj candidate from Kochadhaman seat.

Nitish Kumar was born in Bakhtiarpur, which lies in the Patna district, but his ancestral village, Kalyanbigha, is located in Nalanda. Nitish is not contesting the Bihar assembly elections. In fact, he has not contested elections for three decades now. Yet, he has managed to become one of the longest-serving Chief Ministers of a key state in politics.

Bihar voted in two phases on 6 and 11 November. The results are being announced today. During campaigning, many local voters appear confident that Nitish Kumar was poised to return to power.

“From alcohol prohibition to ₹10,000 for Jeevika Didis, Nitish Kumar has earned the support of women voters too. And why not? We feel safe under his rule. We can venture out alone in buses, which was not the case twenty years ago,” Leela Devi, who lives in Saharsa, said while travelling in the bus from Araria, days before the first phase of elections.

Nitish Kumar became Bihar CM for the first time in 2000. The government collapsed within 8 days. His next stint began in 2005. Since then, there has been no stopping him until 2014, when he resigned after JD(U)’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha elections that year, only to be sworn in as CM again. The last time he took the oath as Chief Minister was in January 2024.

What is Nitish Kumar's strength?

Political analysts say Nitish Kumar’s strength rests on a carefully cultivated base of voters comprising the Kurmi-Koeri communities (7%), Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs, at 26%), Mahadalits, and women.

These constituencies have, by and large, remained loyal to Nitish through various political upheavals, drawn by his relatively clean image and development-focused governance, according to political analyst Amitabh Tiwari.

“Be it the BJP in 2005 and 2019 or the RJD in 2015, whichever party Nitish Kumar has allied with has won elections in the past. He is undoubtedly the kingmaker of Bihar,” Tiwari said.

The Lalu Yadav Years

The only other popular leader in Bihar over the last few decades has been Lalu Prasad Yadav. The Rashtriya Janata Dal chief enjoyed a strong base of loyal support, especially among the OBCs, Scheduled Castes, and Muslims. Lalu was a charismatic mass leader with grassroots connections that drew support for his party and his son Tejashwi Yadav.

Lalu's decline in Bihar politics was the result of a mix of governance failures, corruption scandals, and social changes that reshaped the state’s political landscape in the last few decades.

During Lalu’s rule (1990–2005, including Rabri Devi’s tenure), Bihar became associated with the term ‘jungle raj’ — a description used by critics to characterise widespread crime, poor infrastructure, and a weak administration.

The fodder scam, the multi-crore embezzlement of government funds, severely damaged Lalu’s image as a leader of the poor. His conviction and disqualification from contesting elections (from 2013 onward) weakened the RJD’s leadership and credibility.

Consequently, the non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits, feeling excluded from Lalu’s caste politics, gravitated toward Nitish Kumar’s EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) outreach and the JD(U)-BJP alliance.

“Nitish Kumar should be respected for whatever he is. I still see support for his Sushasan Babu tag. But is that enough this time? I am not sure,” political analyst Manisha Priyam told LiveMint.

In 2025 elections, Nitish sought re-election with the BJP on his side. Many raised questions about his health. Others were wary of his absence from PM Narendra Modi's roadshow in Patna on Sunday.

“The BJP cannot stand on its own feet in Bihar until it has a face. If the BJP is fighting for 100 seats, then it cannot win in Bihar on its own. You need 120 seats to win Bihar," Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor told Mint in an interview.

Both the Bharatiya Janata Party and JD-U contested 101 seats each. Even at a 100% strike rate, each party will still need allies to maintain power. As of now, it seems Nitish and his party are emerging as the biggest player in this election. And the proverbial ‘paltu ram’ seems all set to be the chief minister for the tenth time.