West Bengal Exit Poll Results: Most of the exit polls on 29 April projected that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may come to power in West Bengal for the first time ever. Two pollsters, however, said that the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) will retain power in the state after the high-stakes elections held in two phases.
Of 294 constituencies in the West Bengal Assembly, 148 are required to get a majority.
While Poll Dairy, Matrize News and PMARQ predicted the BJP's win, Janmat and People’s Pulse projected the ruling TMC to retain power. The second and final phase of the West Bengal Assembly polls concluded on Wednesday.
The contest in West Bengal was largely considered bipolar between the ruling TMC and a resurgent BJP. The exit poll results are rarely accurate, and actual results will be released after counting on 4 May.
What the exit polls 2026 projected
Matrize has given an edge to the BJP with 146-161 seats and predicted 120-140 constituencies for the TMC. P-Marq has also predicted a close victory for the BJP in Bengal.
The pollster projects that the BJP would win anywhere between 150 and 175 seats while the TMC will bag 118-138 seats. Praja Polls is another pollster that projected a victory for the BJP with 178-208 seats as against 85-110 seats for the TMC. Poll Diary has projected 142-171 seats for the BJP as against 99-127 for the TMC.
Janmat Poll has predicted 195 to 205 seats for the TMC and 80-90 seats for the BJP in Bengal. Peoples Pulse exit poll has projected a clean sweep for the ruling Trinamool Congress in the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections with 177-187 seats. The pollster has projected 95-110 seats for the BJP.
BJP's track record in Bengal
The BJP has not won assembly elections in West Bengal so far. Yet, it achieved a remarkable milestone in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by winning 18 of the 42 parliamentary seats of Bengal, a sharp increase from 2 seats it had won in 2014.
In the last 10 years, however, the BJP has experienced significant growth in West Bengal and emerged as the primary opposition to the Trinamool Congress by increasing its vote share and winning substantial seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The saffron party won 77 seats in the 2021 assembly elections and became the state's principal opposition party.
What happened in 2021 exit polls and actual results?
In 2021, exit polls predicted a close fight between the TMC and the BJP in Bengal. The poll of polls predicted that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress party would win 156 of the state's 292 seats that went to polls and that the BJP would score a strong 121 seats.
But eventually, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC won the election with a landslide, winning 215 seats out of the 292 polled. The BJP won 77 seats, emerging as the principal opposition party in the West Bengal assembly for the first time.
