West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: TMC confident of Mamata as 4-time CM, Suvendu Adhikari says BJP to win over 180 seats

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) seemed confident of victory in the West Bengal Assembly Elections 2026 despite exit polls showing a split verdict on Wednesday. Many exit polls on April 29 predicted a turnaround in Bengal, with the Bharatiya Janata Party taking the lead over the ruling TMC. However, a few of them kept the TMC's hope of a win for the fourth time.

A political party or coalition needs 148 seats in the 294-member West Bengal Assembly to form a government in the state.

How did TMC leaders react?

On exit polls for West Bengal, TMC MP Saugata Roy told ANI, “...TMC will do very well. High voter turnout is in favour of TMC. It is against the BJP because people are angry with the role of the Election Commission, which is in a conspiracy with the BJP...I am confident that Mamata Banerjee will become Chief Minister for the fourth time...”

Rajya Sabha member Derek O'Brien questioned the credibility of such projections and said in a post on X that several exit polls had missed the mark during the last West Bengal assembly elections.

"Credibility of exit polls? Bengal polls 2021. How off the mark were the predictions from the final results," Derek O'Brien said, sharing data from three exit polls that had forecast a close contest between the TMC and the BJP. The TMC eventually secured a decisive victory.

O'Brien shared a slide citing three exit polls from 2021, which had projected 143-162 seats for the TMC and 115-147 for the BJP. However, the TMC went on to win 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77.

TMC MP Mahua Moitra also wrote on X, "Before you look at exit polls, remember LS 2024 ALL exit polls forecast 350+ for NDA. Chanakya 400; India Today-Axis My India 361-401; ABP-C Voter 353-383. Reality is BJP got 240 well short of majority. Exactly same thing will happen on May 4th."

How did BJP leaders react?

Suvendu Adhikari, the BJP candidate contesting against CM Mamata Banerjee from Nandigram and Bhabanipur, said, “I'm telling you the exit poll from the ground. The BJP is getting more than 180 seats. The BJP is forming the government with a majority. Hindus have cast their votes freely...”

How did Congress leaders react?

Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury said, "... The anti‑incumbency wave has split across all opposition parties. It is hard to say so quickly where and how TMC will factor into this, but it is clear that there has been a huge anti‑TMC vote. However, these votes have scattered across the opposition—some to BJP, some to Congress, some to CPI(M), some to Humayun Kabir’s party..."

West Bengal Exit Polls 2026: What did they reveal?

In West Bengal, while most exit polls predicted a BJP win, two pollsters - People's Pulse and Janmat - projected a comfortable victory for the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee.

People's Pulse estimated 177-187 seats for the TMC, 95-110 for the BJP, 0-1 for the Left Front and 1-3 for the Congress. Janmat projected 195-205 seats for the TMC, 80-90 for the BJP alliance, and 1-3 for the Congress.

Most other pollsters, however, gave the BJP an edge. Matrize projected 146-161 seats for the BJP and 125-140 for the TMC, while P-Marq forecast 150-175 for the BJP and 118-138 for the TMC.

Poll Diary estimated 142-171 seats for the BJP, 99-127 for the TMC and 3-5 for the Congress. Praja Poll predicted a strong BJP performance, projecting 178-208 seats for the party, while estimating 85-110 seats for the TMC.

West Bengal has a total of 294 assembly seats, with the majority mark set at 148.