Will BJP get its first CM in Bihar after massive surge in assembly elections?

Bihar Election Results 2024: The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) swept the Bihar election, winning 202 of the 243 seats in the assembly. The Mahagathbandhan won just 35 seats.

The results defied almost all exit poll predictions. Among the NDA allies, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) emerged as the single largest party, with 89 seats. The Janata Dal (United) won 85 seats.

The BJP contested on 101 seats, which means it won with a strike rate of about 89 per cent. The BJP had won 74 seats in the 2020 elections. The saffron party won 53 seats in 2015 and 93 seats in 2010, when the Janata Dal United won 115 seats. So it is the BJP's second-best performance after 91 seats it won in 2010 assembly elections in Bihar.

Does the BJP even need JD (U) to form a govt?

The BJP and the JD(U) contested the elections as partners of the NDA. The majority mark in Bihar is 122. With 89 seats, the BJP almost crossed the majority mark, aided by Chirag Paswan's LJP (Ram Vilas), which secured 19 seats, and the other two allies, which secured nine seats each. This may take the number to 117, four short of the magic number – 122.

Will Bihar get BJP CM?

As single largest party, the BJP will naturally have more bargaining power. The 2025 election was different. In 2020, the NDA had said before the polls that Nitish Kumar would be the chief minister. The BJP won more seats (74) than JDU (43), yet Nitish Kumar became the chief minister.

Throughout the campaign, the BJP said the elections were being fought under Nitish’s leadership. They praised his governance record. However, when questioned on CM, BJP leaders avoided giving a direct answer. Union Home Minister Amit Shah said that the party’s elected MLAs would decide the chief minister after the results. The only leader who gave a direct reply was Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, who said it will be Nitish Kumar.

Why might the BJP still not get a CM?

The BJP has been a major coalition partner in Bihar politics for decades, especially with the JD(U).

While the BJP has a significant number of MLAs, there hasn’t been a widely accepted BJP leader in Bihar who has enough weight to demand the CM post. Sushil Kumar Modi, a senior BJP leader, served multiple terms as Deputy Chief Minister, but never as CM. All Chief Ministers in the BJP–JD(U) coalition governments have been from JD(U) — primarily Nitish Kumar.

Nitish Kumar, despite being from JD(U), is a strong, proven state-level leader with deep roots in Bihar. Kumar, who has been CM nine times before, brings stability and enjoys a broader appeal.

For the BJP, supporting Nitish as CM may be more strategically profitable: they can share power while avoiding the risks and responsibilities that come with the top job.

Elevating a BJP CM could upset caste equations or alienate parts of the NDA coalition. It might also lead to cracks within the NDA at the centre, where the JD (U) is a partner too.