Bihar election: Can Modi’s ‘Hanuman’ Chirag Paswan afford to go solo in 2025, as he did in 2020? Explained

“I want a decent number of seats… and I want quality seats,” Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) chief Chirag Paswan declared in a recent interview with NDTV. Armed with his party’s five Lok Sabha seats won in 2024, he is reportedly demanding the chance to contest 40 Assembly constituencies in the upcoming Bihar election.

While Chirag Paswan has been firm in demanding a larger share of seats for his party, he has dismissed talk of a rift with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or Nitish Kumar, unlike in 2020, when he declared that his sole aim was to unseat the JD(U) chief.

Chirag Paswan told NDTV that “my supporters want to see me as chief minister”, but he rejected speculation about his own ambitions, clarifying that if he “contests the Assembly polls, it would be only to ensure a better strike rate for my party, which would help the NDA.”

But as his assertion grows louder ahead of the Bihar election, the question remains: Will he contest the polls independently again, or stay aligned with the NDA even if his demands are not met? After winning just one of 136 seats in the 2020 election, can he realistically afford to contest without the NDA? We take a look:

Chirag Paswan as ‘vote katwa’ in 2020

Chirag Paswan was once dismissed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) top brass as a mere “vote katwa [vote cutter]”, a party out to cut votes of another—after he decided to field candidates against NDA alliance partner JD(U).

Senior BJP leaders Prakash Javadekar and Bhupender Yadav had also categorically rejected any links with the LJP, saying the alliance's only partners were JD(U), HAM (S) and the Vikassheel Insaan Party.

And for Chirag Paswan, they said the LJP chief was “trying to confuse voters by lauding the BJP and its leaders, PM Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, while attacking JD(U) president Nitish Kumar.”

As for Chirag, he famously styled himself as PM Narendra Modi’s “Hanuman” and his “blind follower”, insisting his only goal was to strengthen the saffron party.

This was during the 2020 Assembly election.

The 2020 election result

In the 2020 Assembly elections, LJP contested on 136 seats, including the ones where JD(U) contested. The party won just one seat.

But his decision to contest alone and against Nitish Kumar caused JD(U)'s tally to crash in as many as 40 Assembly seats, pushing JD(U) to third place with just a 43–seat win from 71 in the 2015 elections.

The BJP bagged 74 seats – upping its tally from 53 – one less than 75 won by the single-largest party, Lalu Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Cutting into the votes, the LJP finished second in nine constituencies, winning a vote share of 5.66 per cent.

Why did Chirag contest against Nitish? He explains

When the results of the 2020 election came, Chirag claimed that he did what he set out to do – “make BJP stronger”.

He said, “Like all parties, I too would like to win as many seats as possible, but my aim for these elections was to ensure that the BJP emerges as a strong party in the state, and we are happy with the impact we have had.”

The story changes in the run-up to the 2025 Bihar election.

Despite criticising the JD(U)-led government over law and order and feeling “sorry” to be supporting the government in Bihar, the Hajipur MP has acknowledged that Nitish Kumar will remain the alliance’s leader.

Political Analyst Amitabh Tiwari explains why. “LJP holds JDU responsible for the decline in its influence from 12 per cent in 2005 to 6 per cent nowadays, and that's why he never leaves a chance to take a jibe at Nitish [Kumar]. However, Chirag Paswan voters are with him and will go wherever he joins,” he said.

What does the BJP offer the LJP?

On seat-sharing, Chirag Paswan has reportedly sought 40 constituencies to contest, claiming he can influence “20,000 to 25,000 votes in every constituency” of Bihar. According to media reports, the BJP has offered him 25 seats to contest in the Bihar election.

Just recently, he had also said that his party would contest all 243 seats. “I will contest the assembly polls. I will contest in all 243 seats. Every segment will see Chirag Paswan fighting with full intensity,” he said.

No official statement has been made by either party regarding seat-sharing talks, and LiveMint could not independently verify the claims regarding seat demands and offers.

And what if the BJP doesn't agree to his demand? Chirag Paswan openly acknowledged that quitting is always on the table. “If I am uncomfortable or I am too ambitious... I always have the option of walking out of the alliance,” he told NDTV in an interview.

Can Chirag Paswan afford to go solo in 2025?

While exhibiting contrasting performance in Bihar elections – winning just one Assembly constituency in 2020, two in 2015, and three in 2010 – and Chirag Paswan declaring that he has the option of “walking out of alliance”, can the LJP really afford to go solo in this election?

Amitabh Tiwari told LiveMint that the LJP's performance in the past elections has highlighted “inconsistency” in its alliance strategy. Also Read | Bihar Election 2025: NDA vs INDIA bloc — from Mahila Rojgar Yojana to more reservation for EBCs — who's promising what?

“In 2010, it contested with the RJD. In 2015, it shifted to a BJP-led alliance, while in 2020, it contested alone, rebelling from the NDA, or rebelling from part of the NDA,” Tiwari said, pointing out to Paswan's flip-flops.

Chirag Paswan is buoyed by the Lok Sabha election results, however.

“In the Lok Sabha elections, on the other hand, it has achieved a 100 per cent / near 100 per cent strike rate. It won 6/7 seats in 2014 as an NDA ally, 6/6 in 2019 and 5/5 in 2024, riding on the Modi wave during this period. Chirag’s father, called a political mausam vaigyanik [weather scientist], shifted to NDA from UPA before the 2014 general elections, sensing public mood in favour of Modi. It is the only party in India which has more MPs than MLAs,” Tiwari said

“The lesson for Chirag after the 2020 debacle is that he cannot risk dabbling alone again in 2025,” he added.

What can Chirag Paswan do?

The political analyst says that Chirag Paswan was labelled a “vote katua” in 2020, and he “needs to stick with the alliance to win a handful of seats and regain relevance in state politics”.

“This is why, despite overzealous party workers, Chirag has clearly mentioned that there is no vacancy for the CM post in NDA, Nitish would continue to be the CM face, and that he is not throwing his hat in the ring. At the same time, he is aware that the LJP(R) brings an extra 6 per cent of votes to the alliance, and is looking to leverage it in seat distribution talks,” he said.