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Income tax cuts, the 8th Pay Commission, and corruption taint against Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may have opened the road to revival for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Delhi. Ending its three-decade drought, the BJP is all set to return to power in the national capital as it maintains a decisive lead in 45 seats. The AAP, which had been registering landslide victories in Delhi since 2015, is trailing in 25 seats, down from 62 in the last election result.
Delhi has definitely swayed in the BJP direction in the past few years, voting against the cheaper electricity and water that put wind in the sails of the AAP back in 2015, placing Arvind Kejriwal on Delhi throne.
As saffron surge swept Kejri'wall' off its foundation, crumbling it to the ground, many factors have come to the fore as possible reasons for the capital gains for the BJP and rout for the AAP – the 8th Pay Commission, income tax cuts, anti-incumbency and Arvind Kejriwal's ‘sheeshmahal’.
The early trends by the Election Commission also show that the BJP is leading in seats dominated by the middle class.
Income tax cuts: In the Union Budget 2025, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had announced income tax cuts for those having an annual income of up to ₹12 lakh.
The finance minister's decision to make income up to ₹12 lakh tax-free from ₹7 lakh earlier proved to be a major relief to the middle class which had been reeling under massive taxes.
Anti-incumbency: There had been an anti-incumbency wave in Delhi for a while since AAP heavyweights were accused of corruption on the liquor policy scam. The AAP's almost negligible action on air and water pollution may have also turned Delhi against the party.
While the AAP was dealing with the liquor policy scam, that sent AAP heavyweights including Arvind Kejriwal to jail, another ‘sheeshmahal’ scam came to the fore.
The findings of the audit report of the official residence of then Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal at 6, Flag Staff Road showed main and sheer curtains worth ₹96 lakh, kitchen equipment worth ₹39 lakh, a minibar worth ₹4.80 lakh, and silk carpets worth ₹16.27 lakh.
Arvind Kejriwal is accused of creating a sheeshmahal – ₹33.66 crore – four times the actual estimates – by using public funds.
8th Pay Commission: Another reason for the BJP surge in the national capital is likely the announcement of the much-awaited 8th Pay Commission, which will revive salaries of nearly 50 lakh central government employees.
The implementation of the 8th Pay Commission will not only lead to salary hikes for the central government employees, but also an adjustment in the Dearness Allowance (DA).
The 8th Pay Commission will also revise the pensions and allowances of 65 lakh central government retirees.
The BJP is currently leading in at least 46 seats as per the Election Commission of India (ECI), while the AAP is down to 24 seats.
Purvanchali votes: In North East Delhi, which has the most Purvanchali seats, the BJP is leading in six constituencies, highlighting that the Purvanchali voters may have swayed towards the BJP over the AAP.
Yamuna poisoning: Another allegation that may have gone against the Aam Aami Party is Arvind Kejriwal's allegations of poison in Yamuna. Arvind Kejriwal landed in a controversy over his remark that the BJP government in Haryana “mixed poison” in the Yamuna water coming to Delhi to attempt "genocide" in the city.
A defiant Kejriwal accused the BJP of hatching a "conspiracy" to create a water crisis. Scaring people with such remarks definitely was not taken well by the Delhiites.
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