New Delhi: Poriborton (meaning change in Bengali) was the big call across West Bengal, and poriborton it was when the final results emerged on Monday.
The Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to register a watershed win in the 294-member assembly to unseat the ruling Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) and end a 15-year rule.
As of 5.30 pm, BJP had a vote share of 45.4% and had won or was leading in 202 of the 293 seats for which results are available. It was largely a binary contest, and the other parties, like the Indian National Congress (INC) and Communist parties, barely registered a presence in seats.
In the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP had emerged as the leading opposition party with 77 seats and around 38% vote share, up from a mere three seats and 10% vote share in 2016. The TMC had won comprehensively with a 48% vote share and 211 seats.
If Bengal voted for change, Assam, further to the east, opted for continuity. Chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma proved his mass politics and governance credentials, with BJP winning or leading on 82 of the 126 seats as of 5.30 pm. The main opposition party, Congress, was reduced to 19. This was a significant leg up for the ruling party and a clear pro-incumbency vote.
In the 2021 state election, the BJP had won 60 seats with a 33.2% vote share, while the Congress won 29 seats and cornered a vote share of 29.2%.
Change or more of the same—both mandates convey a clear message with respect to the incumbent and reflect how voters prioritize key day-to-day issues beyond all else.
Why didi was trumped in Bengal
Mamata Banerjee, loved and revered in her home state and referred to as ‘didi’ by both supporters and detractors, lost to a potent political force—anti-incumbency.
The anti-incumbency sentiment against her regime was widespread and deep-seated, with voter emotions ranging from ire to disappointment and, in many cases, just fatigue.
A gamut of factors fuelled an anti-government mood. Voters cited the lack of development, industry, and, hence, joblessness as major pain points. “Cut money”, a colloquial reference to corruption and bribery at the grassroots, was another point of complaint, as was the perception of a deteriorating law and order situation and incidents of crimes against women. Voters also seemed unhappy about what they saw as the TMC's perpetuation of the Left Front culture of “cadre intimidation and fear", a system they say they had rejected in 2011 when they voted out the Communists to usher in the Mamata era.
“We want poriborton (change). It is time to give the BJP a chance. We have seen didi for 15 years now and while we supported her all this while, we now feel there is much lacking in the state,” said Sukhmani Sarkar, a 35-year-old vegetable vendor in rural Durgapur, encapsulating perfectly the broader sentiment on the ground.
“Look at our condition—no industry, no jobs, poor healthcare, overall backwardness and add to it, the cut money problem. Is Bengal even safe for women now, despite having a woman chief minister? The mood this time is for change.”
The BJP, which under Prime Minister Modi and home minister Amit Shah, had been aggressively eyeing Bengal but had so far been unable to wrest it from Mamata Banerjee was the obvious beneficiary of this demand for an alternative.
It rode on the popularity of Modi, a carefully crafted campaign that didn’t allow the election to take on a Bengali versus outsider tone, as well as on its ability to create some resonance for its communal twist to the question of illegal immigration.
To add to Banerjee’s woes, even her most trusted electorate — women — seemed to have tilted towards the BJP, keen to look beyond her well-crafted welfarism and ask tough questions about employment and infrastructure.
A significant minority vote—around 27%—doesn’t seem to have been enough to see Banerjee through, with the BJP successfully turning a healthy chunk of the remaining electorate towards itself.
The contentious special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, meanwhile, played out unevenly on the ground, becoming a point of resentment for those left out, especially in the minority community, while being a non-issue for the others.
The Assam win—a vote for Sarma
If the voter of Bengal asked for change, Assam firmly backed the incumbent and endorsed its record. While Bengal and Tamil Nadu’s Vijay may have stolen Assam chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s thunder, the scale of this victory, despite being an incumbent, firmly establishes him as a BJP leader and a chief minister who can deliver on his own merit, much like Uttar Pradesh’s Yogi Adityanath.
The BJP’s ten-year track record seems to have clicked with the people of Assam, with voters citing “unnayan” (development), infrastructure growth, welfare delivery and outreach to the unemployed youth.
Sarma’s frenzied communal rhetoric, meanwhile, was not an election factor in a state where the ethnic faultline rises above other schisms. The ocean of emotion over the passing of popular singing icon Zubeen Garg, while a dominant issue on the ground, did not spark resentment against the incumbent.
However, a parallel story to that of the chief minister’s rise is the fall of the Congress. Internal dissent, defections by senior leaders and gerrymandering of constituencies by the BJP worked against the Congress, with the announcement of Gaurav Gogoi as its main face coming a little too late to make any significant difference.
“We don’t mind Gaurav Gogoi. But we haven’t seen his work. On the other hand, under Himanta Biswa Sarma, we have seen unnayan and have received a lot of suvidha (benefits), so we have no reason not to back him,” said Aniket Deka, a farmer in upper Assam’s Sivasagar, reflecting the ground sentiment.
The big question: what next?
A regime change and a regime continuation seem to dominate the Bengal and Assam stories and have repercussions for the state's politics and the trajectories of the main stakeholders.
In Bengal, Banerjee continues to remain a tall figure. Much of the ire is against her party, the cadre and her governance style than against her as a persona, and that will remain the biggest concern for the BJP. The feisty leader is known for her street-fighter style, combative politics and she is unlikely to let any misstep by the BJP pass.
On its part, the BJP—having been voted in for change and development—will have to deliver on these counts over the next five years, while reimagining welfarism, to prevent Banerjee from making a comeback.
In Assam, the road ahead is tough for both Sarma and Gogoi, two leaders who have a history of personal bitterness. For Sarma, the challenge will be to defend a long incumbency, and to better his own performance. For Gogoi, battle will be to find holes in a successful chief minister’s performance and swoop in with a credible alternative promise, while keeping a crumbling party, where senior leaders have jumped ship, intact.