BJP’s Bengal breakthrough, TVK’s Tamil Nadu stunner: How assembly election results could shape 2029 Lok Sabha contest

Assembly Election Results: As the assembly election results for four states – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and one union territory, Puducherry – were trickling in on 1 May, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said the aftershocks would be felt far and wide for a long time.

“Probably all the way up to 2029,” the National Conference leader, one of the prominent members of the opposition INDIA bloc, said.

In his remarks, Abdullah described the developments in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu as a “political earthquake.”

In Tamil Nadu, actor Vijay-led TVK scripted a blockbuster political debut, emerging as the single-largest party and leaving traditional Dravidian parties, the DMK and the AIADMK, behind. Vijay is now likely to be the first chief minister in nearly six decades from outside the DMK-AIADMK fold.

In West Bengal, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) secured a historic victory, wresting power from incumbent Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of the Trinamool Congress. Mamata Banerjee has been chief minister for successive terms, and the BJP has never been in power in Bengal before, making the results significant.

The BJP also retained Assam, while its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) won Puducherry. In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF wrested power from the Left parties' alliance, the LDF. But the BJP won three Assembly seats in the coastal state.

All the way from Gangotri to Ganga Sagar

"With the victory in Bengal, the lotus is blooming all the way from Gangotri to Ganga Sagar," PM Narendra Modi told party workers after the BJP’s Bengal victory on Monday.

The party is now in power from Gangotri in Uttarakhand, the origin of the Ganga, to Gangasagar in West Bengal, where the river meets the Bay of Bengal. The birthplace of Shyama Prasad Mookerjee, the founder of the BJP’s earlier avatar, the Jan Sangh, the border State of West Bengal, has always been ideologically very important for the party.

Vanquished in their erstwhile bastions

Monday’s results have decimated two key opposition bastions – Bengal and Tamil Nadu. Outgoing Chief Ministers Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin, considered stalwarts of the opposition bloc, lie vanquished in their erstwhile bastions.

As things stand, the BJP or its alliance partners are in power in 21 states across the country. After capturing Bengal, Bihar and Odisha, the BJP has strengthened its national stronghold, creating a dominant eastern front that could offset potential losses in other regions, such as Uttar Pradesh, where assembly elections are scheduled for next year. The incumbent BJP will face a challenge from the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party in 2024.

BJP’s time-tested citadels

Other than UP, where BJP's Yogi Adityanath has been in power since 2017, assembly elections are due in 2027 in Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Gujarat. Of these states, Goa, Manipur, Uttarakhand, and Gujarat are, anyway, BJP’s time-tested citadels. The Congress is in power in Himachal Pradesh, while Punjab is ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The UDF’s victory in Kerala on Monday may boost the Congress, but overall, the latest results give the BJP an edge three years ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha polls.