Delhi Exit Polls: Congress stares at another zero? 5 key reasons behind party’s capital downfall

Delhi Exit Polls: If exit poll predictions for Delhi Elections 2025 hold true, the Congress party is in for yet another drubbing in the national capital. This would prompt an introspection on the reasons for the party's waning electoral clout.

Most Delhi exit poll results revealed on Wednesday predicted a hat-trick of zero seats for the Congress party in the national capital's Assembly. Congress won no seats in Delhi's last two assembly elections, once considered a party stronghold.

Exit polls are often incorrect and the actual results will be known only after the votes are counted on Saturday, February 8. 

A hat-trick of zeros?

An exit poll by Matrize said the Congress may win one seat this time. Another exit poll, Peoples Pulse, predicted the Congress would again draw a blank. 

People's Insight predicted the Congress would get 0-1 seat, and P-Marq gave a similar outlook for the grand old party.

What explains a series of electoral setbacks in the national capital? With zero seats and below 10 per cent vote share in the last two assembly polls, the Congress's presence in Delhi has dwindled to a mere shadow of its former dominance. The party ruled Delhi for 15 years, from 1998 to 2013.

AAP's gain, Congress loss

Congress decline in Delhi coincided with Aam Aadmi Party's rise since 2013. In the assembly polls held in 2013, the electoral debut of AAP, the Congress numbers in Delhi assembly were reduced to 8 seats from earlier 43 seats, with a 15 per cent decline in its vote share. The AAP won with about 30 per cent vote share.

In the 2015 and 2020 Delhi Assembly Elections, the Congress's performance further weakened and the party got nil seats. In 2015, the Congress party's vote share reduced to 9.7 per cent. The vote share declined further in 2020 assembly polls when it got just 4.26 per cent. The AAP's vote share in 2015 hovered around 54 per cent.

Even a few seats in Delhi Electin 2025 would have meant an improvement for the party. But that doesn't seem to be the case, if exit polls hold true

Many analysts have attributed Congress's loss to AAP's gain, with the Arvind Kejriwal-led party rising at the expense of the Congress. The voter base of AAP among poor and lower middle class until 2020 elections once used to support the Congress party, they said.

And as BJP seems to be returning to power in Delhi replacing AAP, there seems to be no end to Congress party's troubles.

Leadership crisis

The Congress often boasts its historical legacy, referring to its long-standing presence in Delhi. It governed the national capital for 15 years under the late Sheila Dikshit. The party believed many voters will still remember the period as a time of infrastructure development.

Yet, unlike the Sheila Dikshit era, the Congress party doesn’t have a charismatic face in the capital. Worse, the party has a weak organizational structure with the grassroots cadre significantly weakening over the years, with many leaders defecting to either the BJP or the AAP.

Congress’s traditional vote base among minorities and lower-income groups has been significantly eroded by AAP’s welfare schemes, according to political analysts.

Lack of narrative

Over the years, Congress has lacked a narrative in the capital other than its ‘glorious’ past. The AAP’s governance model has overshadowed Congress's earlier achievements. And in 2025 election – as exit polls predict – it seemed that the BJP's narrative seeking a change in the national capital after 27-year drought struck a chord with the voters.

The Congress party tried hard with its manifesto including the ₹2,500 a month cash dole for women and ₹25 lakh health insurance promises.

Recent setbacks in Haryana and Maharashtra added to Congress woes. The party that ruled Delhi for three terms from 1998 to 2013 is today struggling to project a distinct identity or agenda that differentiates it from the other two players – the AAP and the BJP.

INDIA bloc contradiction

The Congress and the AAP are are partners in INDIA bloc but rivals in Delhi and Punjab. A few months before the Delhi assembly elections, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi attended an Opposition rally in the national capital demanding release of AAP chief and then Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal from jail.

And on Janaury 28, a week before Delhi polls, Rahul launched a scathing Kejriwal and his party colleague Manish Sisodia, accusing the two of being the ‘architects’ of the alleged Delhi liquor scam.

The Leader of Opposition, addressing a public meeting ahead of Delhi Elections 2025, also invoked the controversy surrounding the bungalow where Kejriwal stayed before stepping down as Chief Minister in September last year. Gandhi used the term ‘sheesh mahal’ – a phrase coined by the BJP to highlight the alleged over spending in the CM's bungalow.