First-ever BJP government in West Bengal? Here is what early trends show in high-stakes BJP vs TMC contest

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken an early lead and crossed 92 seats in West Bengal, while the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is leading on over 52 seats, as per trends from the Election Commission of India.

The saffron party has crossed the halfway mark of 148 seats, as per early trends streamed on TV channels. West Bengal has 294 seats while one seat is going for a re-poll. Hence, the results of 293 seats will be declared.

If the trends hold true, the Bharatiya Janata Party is on the road to forming a government in West Bengal for the first time ever. West Bengal Leader of Opposition (LoP) and BJP candidate from Nandigram and Bhabanipur, Suvendu Adhikari, expressed confidence in his party's performance as counting for the Assembly elections is underway.

Adhikari claimed that initial trends show the BJP leading in over 130 seats, while the Trinamool Congress is ahead in around 100. He said the contest in Bhabanipur may be close in the early rounds, but expressed confidence that he will take the lead after more rounds of counting.

"There is anti-incumbency, plus Hindus are consolidated in favour of the Lotus. This is a very good signal for us...There has also been a Muslim vote bifurcation, especially in Malda, Mushidabad and Uttar Dinajpur," Adhikari said.

West Bengal recorded the highest-ever voter turnout since independence with an impressive 91.66% polling in Phase-II of the Assembly elections. In Phase-I, the poll participation was 93.19%, taking the combined poll percentage to 92.47%.

In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly election, the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee secured a decisive mandate, winning 213 out of 294 seats with a vote share of around 48 per cent, while the Bharatiya Janata Party emerged as the principal opposition with 77 seats and roughly 38 per cent votes, marking a sharp rise from its previous tally. The Left-Congress alliance failed to win any seats.

The rise of BJP in Bengal

The Bharatiya Janata Party began contesting assembly elections in West Bengal as early as 1882. But the saffron party has not won assembly elections in West Bengal so far.

In the last 10 years, however, the BJP has experienced significant growth in West Bengal and emerged as the primary opposition to the Trinamool Congress by increasing its vote share and winning substantial seats in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The party achieved a remarkable milestone in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by winning 18 of the 42 parliamentary seats of Bengal, a sharp increase from the two seats it had won in 2014.

The saffron party won 77 seats in the 2021 assembly elections and became the state's principal opposition party.

The BJP’s vote share surged from 17 per cent in 2014 to 40 per cent in 2019. The gap between the BJP and the TMC vote share was just 3 per cent, with the Mamata Banerjee-led party polling 43 per cent vote share, winning 22 seats, 12 fewer than it won during the peak ‘Modi wave’ in 2014.

The BJP’s rise has been driven by a relentless, high-voltage campaign led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The BJP’s Hindutva narrative consolidated a large chunk of the Hindu vote, resulting in a 36 per cent increase in support for the BJP among Hindu voters from 2014 to 2019.

On 25 April, in one of his many rallies, PM Modi said the high voter turnout reflected public support for the BJP’s call for change and a rejection of what he termed the TMC’s “dictatorship”.

“The TMC's arrogance was shattered in the first round, and the second phase will cement BJP's victory in the state,” Modi said, speaking at Matua community citadel of Thakurnagar at Bangaon in North 24 Parganas district of Bengal.