How BJP cracked Bengal code: 7 reasons behind saffron party's historic surge in Assembly polls

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is on course for a comfortable victory in West Bengal over the incumbent chief minister, Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress, as votes are being counted.

The BJP has been contesting assembly elections in Bengal since 1982 by fielding candidates on 52 seats, but has won none. The saffron party won the first seats in Bengal in 2016, bagging three assembly constituencies out of the 294 seats it contested.

In 2021, the BJP won 77 seats and emerged as the second-largest party in Bengal. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, its score dropped to 12 from 18 in the 2019 general election.

This assembly poll, however, appears set to make a massive comeback. As counting continues, the BJP is leading on over 200 seats while the TMC is ahead on 83 seats, according to trends shared by the Election Commission of India.

The majority mark in West Bengal’s 294 seats is 148. The BJP has polled massive 45 per cent vote share in its first major victory in Bengal. How did the BJP manage to script such a historic victory in a state where it had hardly any MLAs ten years ago?

Here are 7 key factors that worked for the BJP in West Bengal:

1-Consolidation of Hindu votes

The BJP successfully polarised and consolidated a significant section of Hindu voters across regions such as North Bengal and parts of South Bengal, according to experts who are still analysing the election results.

Communal messaging and identity politics helped it convert fragmented votes into a more cohesive bloc months leading up to last month's assembly polls, they said. The party leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, were also seen focussing on the long-standing threat from the ‘ghuspaithia’ or illegal settlers.

In ‘Mission Bengal: A Saffron Experiment’, Kolkata-based journalist Snigdhendu Bhattacharya explains how, from being a fringe political party in 2013 to sweeping nearly half of the state's forty-two Lok Sabha seats in 2019, the BJP gained ground in West Bengal, aided partly by its ideological fountainhead, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s (RSS) exponential growth during Mamata Banerjee's chief ministerial tenure, 2011 onwards.

2- Aggressive central leadership

Top leaders like Narendra Modi and Amit Shah led an intense, high-visibility campaign with rallies, roadshows, and direct voter outreach, giving the party strong momentum and visibility.

In July 2025, the BJP’s central leadership appointed Shamik Bhattacharya as the BJP’s state president in West Bengal. The move was significant. Bhattacharya is a known old-timer in the BJP from the days of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

The appointment has clearly reaped dividends. While Suvendu Adhikari, the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly, was the face of the BJP in rural Bengal, the soft-spoken Bhattacharya aimed to build rapport with the ‘bhadralok’ voter in Kolkata and suburban Bengal.

Home Minister Amit Shah had camped in Kolkata during the West Bengal election campaign.

4- Organisational expansion, booth management

From being a marginal player, the BJP has built a robust grassroots machinery in Bengal over the past decade. Strong booth-level management, cadre mobilisation, and RSS support improved its vote conversion efficiency, experts said.

Union minister Bhupender Yadav, who took over the party’s in-charge for the Bengal battle, focused on BJP booth workers.

5- Mamata vs Outsider backfired

Mamata Banerjee contested the West Bengal Election 2026 on a narrative describing the BJP as an ‘outsider’ party. Top TMC leaders, including star campaigner Sayoni Ghosh, painted the BJP as a north Indian party that did not understand Bengal’s cultural milieu. Claims were made that the BJP would target Bengalis’ food habits if it came to power.

In regions including Matua-dominated regions, the TMC put up posters projecting the BJP as an ‘outsider’ and even tried to create a fear psychosis that the BJP would throw people out of the country by invoking the NRC and other laws.

The BJP countered this narrative. Did public shows eating fish – Bengal’s staple, and drove home the point that it has no plan to crack down on Bengalis’ plates.

Some people that Mint spoke with had issues with this ‘outsider’ narrative propagated by TMC. Some said that Mamata Banerjee, otherwise considered a street fighter, deviated from her core politics of being Bengal’s own daughter and fighting for real issues within the state.

6-Anti-incumbency and RG Kar Case

The 71-year-old, often referred to as ‘didi’ (elder sister), faced what many called her toughest battle yet. Known for her combative style and strong grassroots connections, she has dominated politics in West Bengal since 2011, when her TMC party ended decades of Left rule.

Right from day one, the BJP capitalised on allegations against the Trinamool Congress government—especially in recruitment scams and local-level corruption—projecting itself as a cleaner alternative. The anti-incumbency of over 18 years against Mamata Banerjee-led TMC also helped the BJP win a massive victory in Bengal.

The RG Kar Medical College case became more than a law-and-order issue and evolved into a political flashpoint that both the Trinamool Congress (TMC). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tried to frame it to their advantage during the West Bengal elections. BJP fielded the mother of RG Kar victim, Ratna Debnath, who is leading in Panihati by 5,067 votes over the Trinamool Congress nominee.

7- Welfare narrative vs ‘appeasement’ pitch

The BJP pushed a counter-narrative against the Trinamool Congress government, accusing it of minority appeasement while highlighting central welfare schemes such as PM Awas Yojana and Ujjwala Yojana.

The BJP promised ₹3500 for women as against TMC's ₹1500. This women-centric dole promise has helped the BJP win elections in other states as well.