Exit polls 2026 suggest win for BJP-led alliance in Assam, Puducherry, some show edge over TMC in West Bengal

Several exit polls released on Wednesday predicted a decisive victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam and some gave the party a clear advantage over the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal.

They also projected the return of the DMK government in Tamil Nadu and a comeback for the Congress-led UDF in Kerala after a gap of 10 years, while

Pollsters further indicated that the AINRC-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government is likely to retain power in Puducherry.

Assembly elections 2026 exit polls: A look at projections for BJP's performance

Assam

Axis My India projected a landslide victory for the BJP-led alliance in Assam, estimating that the party and its allies would win between 88 and 100 seats. People’s Pulse predicted the NDA would secure around 68 to 72 seats, while Matrize forecast the alliance to win between 85 and 95 seats.

In 2021 exit polls, several surveys gave the NDA a comfortable majority, with some projecting around 75–85 seats in the 126-member Assembly, where the majority mark was 64. When the actual results were declared on May 2, the NDA not only retained power but won 75 seats, making history as the first non-Congress alliance to secure consecutive terms in Assam. The BJP itself won 60 seats, while the overall NDA tally reached 75.

West Bengal

The People’s Pulse exit poll projected the BJP was estimated to secure 95 to 110 seats. Matrize, however, gave the BJP an advantage in the state, forecasting 146 to 161 seats for the party. P-Marq also projected a strong performance for the BJP, predicting 150 to 175 seats for the party.

In the 2021, several exit polls predicted a much stronger performance for the BJP than what the final results showed. Some surveys projected the BJP to win around 109–121 seats, while Republic-CNX even estimated 143 seats, giving the party a possible edge.

However, when the results were declared, the BJP won only 77 seats, falling far short of both the majority mark of 148 and the exit poll projections.

West Bengal has a total of 294 Assembly seats, with 148 required for a majority.

Tamil Nadu

People’s Pulse predicted that the AIADMK-BJP alliance would win between 65 and 80 seats, while Matrize forecast the NDA’s tally to be in the range of 87 to 100 seats. Tamil Nadu has a total of 234 Assembly seats, with 118 needed to secure a majority.

In 2021 exit polls, AIADMK and its allies were expected to secure nearly 66 seats. The NDA won 75 seats, including 66 for the AIADMK when results were announced on May 2.

Kerala

Axis My India and People’s Pulse both predicted the NDA would win 0–3 seats, while Matrize estimated the alliance could secure between 3 and 5 seats.

In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, most exit polls predicted the NDA would win between 1 and 5 seats. For example, Republic-CNX estimated 1–5 seats, while P-Marq projected 0–3 seats and Axis My India forecast 0–2 seats.

However, when the results were declared, the NDA failed to win a single seat and ended with 0 seats, losing even its lone existing seat in the Assembly.

The Kerala Assembly has a total of 140 seats, and a party or alliance needs 71 seats to secure a majority.

Puducherry

Axis My India projected that the NDA would win between 16 and 20 seats. Kamakhya Analytics predicted that the NDA would win between 17 and 24 seats. People’s Pulse estimated a range of 16 to 19 seats for NDA, while Praja Poll projected a higher figure of 19 to 25 seats.

There are 30 elected seats in Puducherry.

In 2021 exit polls, Axis My India predicted the NDA would win 20–24 seats. However, when the results were declared, the NDA secured 16 seats and formed the government.

Assembly elections 2026

Polling in Assam, Kerala, Puducherry, and Tamil Nadu was held in a single phase, while West Bengal witnessed voting in two phases on April 23 and April 29.

Assam, Kerala, and Puducherry went to the polls on April 9. Both Assam and Puducherry recorded their highest-ever voter turnout, with 85.38 per cent and 89.83 per cent participation respectively.

Tamil Nadu voted on April 23 alongside the first phase of polling in West Bengal. The state registered its highest-ever Assembly election turnout since Independence, with 84.69 per cent voting.

In the first phase of polling, West Bengal had recorded a remarkable voter turnout of 91.78 per cent.

The counting of votes for the Assembly elections in West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, and Assam will take place on May 4.