How Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India got it right for actor Vijay in Tamil Nadu
While most pollsters had predicted a DMK return for the second term, it was Axis My India that went against the grain, giving Vijay's party the unpopular edge over the two Dravidian parties.
It's a Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) surge in Tamil Nadu, and there is only one pollster that got it absolutely right in the exit poll predictions – Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India. While most pollsters had predicted a DMK return for the second term, it was Axis My India that went the opposite way, giving Vijay's party the unpopular edge over the two Dravidian parties – DMK and AIADMK – which have taken turns holding power in the state.
What did Axis My India predict?
In Tamil Nadu, Axis My India's exit poll projected that the TVK would get 98-120 seats in its debut election, indicating a blockbuster electoral win for debutant Vijay.
It predicted that the DMK-led alliance would secure 92-100 seats, while the five-party alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would get 22-32 seats.
According to Axis My India, Vijay is ahead of Chief Minister MK Stalin in terms of choice for the next chief minister. While MK Stalin was supported by 35 per cent of those polled, Vijay got the support of 37 per cent.
Tamil Nadu has 234 assembly seats. The majority mark is 118.
What did the other exit polls predict for DMK and AIADMK?
Several other exit polls predicted that the alliance led by the ruling DMK will return to power in the state. People Pulse projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance and AIADMK-led alliance, which includes the BJP, getting 65-80 seats. It projected that Vijay's TVK would get two to six seats.
According to exit poll projections by Matrize, the DMK and allies will get 122-132 seats and the AIADMK and allies 80-100 seats. It said TVK would get 0-6 assembly seats.
The exit poll by P-MARQ projected 125-145 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60-70 seats for the AIADMK-led alliance and one to six seats for TVK.
People Insight projected 120-140 seats for the DMK-led alliance, 60-70 for the AIADMK-led alliance and 30-40 seats for TVK.
What do the Election Commission results show?
According to the latest trends by the Election Commission of India (ECI), the TVK is nearing the majority mark of 118 seats. It is currently leading in 108 constituencies.
The DMK, which was predicted to form the government for the second time by most pollsters except Axis My India, is leading on 53 seats. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is leading in 54 constituencies.
(With inputs from agencies)
About the Author
Chanchal is an Assistant Editor at LiveMint, where she handles the desk as a shifthead, works on political reporting, general news coverage, offering key political developments from India and around the world. With over 11 years of experience in digital journalism, Chanchal brings a strong editorial perspective shaped by years of writing on political developments across the world, and newsroom leadership. At LiveMint, she focuses on delivering accurate, insightful stories with clarity and context. <br><br> Based in Delhi, Chanchal has worked with leading media organizations before she joined Mint. those include India Today where she worked as a shift head until 2022. She has also spent years at India.com, education vertical of India Today and a well-reputed publishing house earlier in her career as a trainee reporter. Her work and contribution to journalism have been recognized with the Digistar Award twice at HT. <br><br> Outside the newsroom, she enjoys Netflix, painting, reading, sketching and crocheting. She can be reached at her official email address, chanchal@htdigital.in for any news leads. She is particularly interested in all stories linked to elections, public policy, and governance reforms, and strives to break down complex political issues into understandable narratives for readers across digital platforms, ensuring depth, balance, and factual integrity. Outside of work, she scrolls through Instagram, LinkedIn, Reddit and also X.
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