BJP's Suvendu Adhikari is leading in Nandigram by over 3,100 votes against TMC's Pabitra Kar after the first round of counting, according to television trends, though the Election Commission was yet to upload official figures at the time of reporting.
In Bhabanipur, Adhikari had held an early edge over Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, though the contest has been intensely volatile.
However, Mamata Banerjee has now maintained lead of with 25942 votes after 5 rounds of vote counting in Bhabnipur.
Adhikari, buoyed by the broader party performance across the state, declared: "The BJP will form the government with more than 180 seats." Taking a pointed jibe at the TMC, he added: "Rone dijiye. Khatam poora khatam."
He further said: "All Hindus are united in favour of Narendra Modi. After four rounds of counting, the BJP is forming its government. Hindu EVMs mean BJP, Muslim EVMs mean TMC, except Malda, Murshidabad and North Dinajpur, where people have voted for Congress."
Adhikari also claimed: "Out of the 14 booths counted in the first round, five were Muslim-dominated. Even there, the TMC is struggling," asserting that the BJP was headed for victory and leading in over 135 of the 293 seats.
Suvendu vs Mamata: A Rivalry That Has Defined West Bengal Politics
The contest between Suvendu Adhikari and Mamata Banerjee has been the defining subplot of West Bengal's 2026 assembly election. Adhikari, once one of Banerjee's closest aides and a key architect of TMC's political machinery in Midnapore, defected to the BJP ahead of the 2021 elections in one of the most consequential political crossovers in the state's recent history.
In 2021, Adhikari defeated Banerjee in Nandigram by a margin of 1,956 votes in one of the most closely watched contests in the country, turning the constituency into the symbolic centre of that election. The result was disputed by the TMC, which challenged it in court, but Adhikari retained the seat and went on to become the Leader of Opposition in the West Bengal assembly.
His decision to contest from Bhabanipur in 2026, directly taking on Banerjee in her home bastion, raised the stakes of their rivalry to an entirely new level, making the seat one of the most scrutinised in the entire country.
BJP Crosses Majority Mark as West Bengal Trends in Saffron
The broader picture in West Bengal has shifted decisively in the BJP's favour as counting has progressed. According to Election Commission of India trends, the BJP is leading on 156 seats in the 294-member assembly, well past the majority mark of 148, whilst the TMC is ahead on 86 seats. TMC ally BGPM is leading on one additional seat.
If the trends hold, the BJP will form the first-ever saffron government in West Bengal, ending 15 years of Trinamool Congress rule and nearly five decades of unbroken dominance by either the TMC or the Left, which governed the state for 34 years before Banerjee swept to power in 2011.
West Bengal's Record Voter Turnout: A Wave Signal in Hindsight
West Bengal recorded its highest-ever voter turnout since Independence in this election, with 93.19 per cent participation in Phase I and 91.66 per cent in Phase II, combining for an overall turnout of 92.47 per cent. Analysts had suggested ahead of counting that such an extraordinary turnout could indicate a strong wave in either direction, and the early trends appear to have validated that assessment in favour of the BJP.
West Bengal 2026 vs 2021: The Scale of the Shift
The scale of the BJP's gains, if early trends hold, would represent one of the most dramatic reversals in West Bengal's modern political history. In 2021, the TMC won 213 of 294 seats with approximately 48 per cent of the vote, whilst the BJP secured 77 seats with around 38 per cent.
The Left-Congress alliance failed to win a single seat. A BJP majority in 2026 would mark a swing of historic proportions in a state that has never before seen a BJP government.
