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Business News/ Elections / Which states pose a challenge for BJP in Lok Sabha elections 2024? Axis My India MD Pradeep Gupta says...

Which states pose a challenge for BJP in Lok Sabha elections 2024? Axis My India MD Pradeep Gupta says...

NDA aims for over 400 seats in upcoming elections, but psephologist Pradeep Gupta predicts challenges in 13 states for BJP-led alliance.

A worker sorts Bharatiya Janata Party flags at a BJP election office in Chennai (AFP)Premium
A worker sorts Bharatiya Janata Party flags at a BJP election office in Chennai (AFP)

Political parties concluded a high-octane campaign in several states this week with the NDA insisting that it would secure more than 400 seats. Psephologist Pradeep Gupta — the managing director of Axis My India — however contends that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance stands no chance of improving its tally in 13 states.

Gupta claimed the ruling coalition would face some difficulties in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka and Delhi due to changes in the political landscape over the past five years. He also noted the possibility of improvement in states such as West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Telangana and the northeastern states.

“During the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, NDA had a 93% strike rate in these states. However, considering the 2024 general election, the alliance in power has almost zero chances of getting more seats, and its tally may reduce. To reach 400, it will have to maintain at least its existing position," Gupta told Moneycontrol.

ALSO READ: Lok Sabha Elections 2024 Phase One: West Bengal set for BJP Vs TMC showdown on April 19

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other members of the NDA have raised the clarion call of ‘Abki Bar 400 Par’ — a 48 seat jump from the 352 secured by the grouping in 2019. Most opinion polls have given the NDA a clear edge while predicting a tough fight in certain states. 

Gupta however noted the many political deviations that have taken place since the 2019 polls in states such as Maharashtra. While the INDIA bloc remains somewhat fractured, he insisted that the Opposition parties “have made their own ways of putting a strong front".

“Maharashtra has new alliances, and there has been a split in two major parties, the Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party. The political equation has also changed compared to the last general election. Similarly, in Karnataka, the Congress party formed the government with a landslide victory and has the potential to win seats as well. In Delhi, the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party have already stitched an alliance," he explained. 

Which states send the most candidates to Lok Sabha?

Uttar Pradesh leads the list with 80 parliamentary constituencies. Maharashtra will send 48 lawmakers to the Lok Sabha while West Bengal sends 42 representatives. 

What is the majority mark?

The winning party or alliance will need to secure at least 272 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha. The BJP alone secured 290 seats in the 2019 general elections. The NDA as a whole currently holds 346 seats.

ALSO READ: Lok Sabha elections 2024: Can't find your voter ID card at last moment? Check 11 alternative documents to cast vote

Which states have 

102 constituencies across 21 states will cast their ballots on Friday during the first phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Polling will take place in seven phases with votes being counted on June 4. 

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Published: 18 Apr 2024, 09:17 PM IST
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