Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Opinion polls predict NDA dominance in Uttar Pradesh as PM Modi eyes ‘ab ki baar, 400 paar'

Uttar Pradesh sends 80 Lok Sabha members to the lower house of Parliament. Out of 550 members in the House, 80 are from Uttar Pradesh itself. Of these a survey conducted by News18 shows that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to bag a total of 77 seats, predicting a landslide victory. The survey also shows that the Opposition INDIA bloc will bag two seats, leaving one for Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh.

The New18 opinion poll has predicted BJP-led NDA will cinch a 57% vote share in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024. Contenders including Akhilesh Yadav's SP and Congress combined is predicted to get 26% vote share. 

Mayawati's BSP is likely to win a single seat with a 9% vote share, the News18 Opinion Poll shows.

Notably, Prime Minster and BJP leader Narendra Modi is set to contest Lok Sabha polls from UP's Varanasi. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi, who held the Raebareli seat from Uttar Pradesh, has now moved to Rajya Sabha, triggering speculations that her daughter Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is set to amke her poll debut.

Lok Sabha polls 2024: Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh has 80 Lok Sabha constituencies. Notably, Uttar Pradesh elects the maximum number of members to the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. 

In Rajya Sabha Uttar Pradesh contributes 31 members to the Parliament while in Lok Sabha number of members is 80.

In the 2019 general elections, BJP had won 62 seats, Mayawati's BSP secured 10, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) won 5, Apna Dal (Sonelal) had won 2, and Congress had managed to win just one seat.

How BJP is likely to fare in Uttar Pradesh? 

According to the News18 survey, BJP is expected to sweep Ruhelkhand's 10 seats, Bundelkhand's four, Doab's 14 and western UP's nine Lok Sabha seats.

The survey also says BJP is set to bag 29 of the 30 Lok Sabha seats in Poorvanchal and 11 of the 13 in the Avadh region. 

Furter, SP-Congress-led INDIA bloc is expected to bag one seat each from the Avadh and Poorvanchal regions. The BSP is projected to win one seat in the Avadh region.

Importance of Uttar Pradesh in Lok Sabha seat count

It is imperative to understand that any political party in India seeking the Prime Minister seat would want to win maximum seats from Uttar Pradesh to thereby propel their majority in the Lower House of Parliament.

An earlier survey had shown that amid PM Narendra Modi's claim ‘Ab ki baar, NDA sarkar, 400 paar…’, a survey shows though the alliance will witness a landslide win in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections 2024, it is likely to fall short of the 400 target by a few seats.

As per the TN-ETG Research survey, the NDA is likely to win 358-398 seats, while INDIA might gain about 110 to 130.

BJP's absolute majority in Lok Sabha

BJP had registered a historic mandate in the last elections, winning 282 seats - an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. The Congress was reduced to its worst-ever tally, winning only 44 constituencies.