BJP, JD (U) set to trounce Mahagathbandhan in Bihar
The BJP and the JD(U) are leading in 16 and 15 seats each, respectivelyThe Mahagatbandhan has had a poor showing, with the RJD leading in two seats
Patna: The BJP-JD (U) combine is set to trounce the Mahagatbandhan in Bihar thereby marking a tectonic shift in the age-old heartland politics of caste arithmetics.
While the BJP and the JD(U) were leading in 16 and 15 seats each, respectively, the Mahagatbandhan or the grand alliance comprising of Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, Rashtriya Lok Samata Party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), and Vikasheel Insaan Party (VIP) had a poor showing. While the RJD was leading in two seats, with Congress yet to show anything for its claims of impending change in the state.
The grand alliance haven't been able to make a dent to the formidable BJP-JD (U) combine at a time when Lalu Prasad, RJD president and former chief minister, is serving a jail sentence in Ranchi for his involvement in the ₹950 crore fodder scam.
A BJP, Janata Dal (U), Lok Janshakti Party win will turn the politics of caste arithmetic on its head on which the Bihar elections have been fought over the years. OBCs and extremely backward castes (EBCs), constitute around 51% of the Bihar's population. Of this, around 14% are Yadavs, 4% are Kurmis and 8% Koeris. The Dalits and Mahadalits comprise 10% and 6%, respectively, with Muslims forming 17% of the population. The forward castes comprising Rajputs, Bhumihars, Brahmins and Kayasthas comprise 15% of the population.
The BJP and the JD(U) contested 17 seats each, while the LJP contested six out of the total 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state.
Given that state assembly polls in Bihar are likely to be held around November next year, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar held 174 rallies in the state of which eight were along with Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Many believe that the Janata Dal (United) chief’s 45 days unending campaign was more of an effort to establish his credentials rather than the muscular nationalism narrative established by the BJP.
“Seized of what is at stake Nitish Kumar went all out in this campaign. While he started his campaign on issues such as development and the work done by him but gradually he incorporated the BJP’s narrative of nationalism in his speeches for obvious reasons," said a person associated with Kumar’s campaign requesting anonymity.
In October 2013, Narendra Modi had launched BJP’s general election campaign from a rally in Patna, highlighting the significance of the state. When the results came out in May 2014, the splintered opposition faced a humiliating defeat, as the BJP-led NDA swept the state winning more than three fourths of the Lok Sabha seats. However, just a year later, NDA suffered a drubbing in the assembly polls. With BJP back in the state’s ruling coalition now, the stakes are high for the party, as the Lok Sabha elections are not only a fight for prestige, but also one to retain a traditional stronghold.
The Lok Sabha elections in Bihar were held in seven phases, with every possible caste configuration in play. With 40 Lok Sabha seats, Bihar was not only a battleground state but also a test case of being one of the largest states where a united rainbow alliance of opposition parties has taken on the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The results today also offers a peek into who holds the key to the next government in the state, once ruled by the likes of Chandragupta Maurya, Samudragupta and Ashoka.
Over the last five years, alliances in Bihar have changed at least thrice. The 2014 Lok Sabha polls were fought by the BJP, Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Janata Dal (United) separately. This helped the BJP which had less than one third of the vote share (29.86%) win more than two-thirds of the seats it contested (22 out of 30). On the other hand, the RJD won just four seats with a 20.46% vote share and the JD(U) just two seats with a 16.04% share.
“Mahagatbandhan wouldn’t be able to do much. I have voted for kamal (Lotus). Modi ji has worked for the country. He has got good missiles for the country. Earlier leaders only paid lip services to the soldiers. Modi ji has avenged what was done to our soldiers in Kashmir. He has also worked for the farmers by starting PM-Kisan," said 28 year Dilip Kumar who belongs to Madhubani.
In 2015 assembly polls, BJP fought against a Congress-RJD-JD (U) combine and fared badly. In 2017, Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar switched side to NDA bringing BJP led alliance to power and Congress-RJD in opposition.
Seized of the importance of an alliance, the BJP took a step back in Bihar’s seat-sharing arrangement to accommodate two of its key allies, the JD(U), led by chief minister Nitish Kumar and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) led by Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan.
“It is opportunism on part of Nitish Kumar to go with BJP. He is the original mausam vaigyanik (weather scientist) rather than Ram Vilas Paswan. If BJP wins in Bihar it will turn the concept of coalition on its head. For Mahagathbandan it is bemann kee shehnai," said 48 year old Anjum Hasan.
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