Elections 2019: Will ‘speedbreaker didi’ slow Modi down?

For 30-year-old businessman S.M. Imran, West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee is a symbol of resistance against the steadily growing influence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has slowly become the main challenger to the electoral might of the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).

The ongoing election battle between the TMC and the BJP has largely been tagged as a contest between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Banerjee.

The two have been taking potshots at each other for the last few weeks on the campaign trail. Banerjee, who was part of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the 1990s, has been on a collision course with the centre for a few years now, and is openly critical of Modi, his policies and programmes, and his mode of governance.

Modi, despite stating in a recent interview with Bollywood star Akshay Kumar that he’s on good terms with “Mamata didi” and that she sends him kurtas and sweets every year, has been relentless in his criticism of Banerjee on the campaign trail. He called her “speedbreaker didi” for holding up development projects and “sticker didi” for “stamping central schemes with her name and distributing it in the state”, and has described the TMC government as an “aunt-nephew government”. Banerjee also hit back, called him “expiry babu”, and told him to “worry about Delhi first before turning your eyes towards Bengal”.

Although the BJP has never played a decisive role in West Bengal politics, it has managed to maintain a fairly steady vote share for itself over the last six general elections—even when it did not win a seat.

In 2014, the party managed 17% of the votes and two Lok Sabha seats, up from a vote share of 6% and one seat in 2009. In the 2016 assembly polls, however, it only managed to win three seats but the absence of a credible opposition to the TMC in West Bengal has given the BJP a chance in this general election. The Congress and the Left Front have been losing support steadily in the state over the last few years.

“Our entire support is for Mamata didi,” said Imran, who owns a leather business in Kolkata’s Park Circus. “She is responsible for Hindu-Muslim unity in West Bengal. There have always been differences between the majority and minority communities here, but didi knows how to handle it. She maintains peace and works for the development of West Bengal.”

The TMC is assured of the support of minorities — 27% of the state’s population is Muslim and 7% Christian — in the fight against the growing popularity and influence of the BJP under Modi.

The fact that she is part of a massive opposition alliance does play against her with some voters. “Mamata Banerjee can become the prime minister but there are 21 parties (in the alliance), so she will not get more than six months in the seat. India needs a strong and stable government and a prime minister for five years. The opposition parties have not presented a credible PM candidate this time,” said Pratap Shankar Das, a 62-year-old consultant and a resident of Serampore.

The chit fund scams in which people lost savings have fuelled anger against the TMC government, and turned people towards the BJP. TMC members were named in the investigations in the Narada, Sharada and Rose Valley scams, and Banerjee is seen as having shielded the accused. This anger, along with violence during the March panchayat elections, has been exploited by the BJP in its election campaigns.

“I lost ₹1.2 lakh in the chit fund scam and the state government has done nothing to act against the people responsible for it. We were not allowed to vote during the panchayat elections, but this time we are determined to vote. The presence of central forces will keep us safe. We do not trust the state police,” said Nayan Krishna Ghosh, a 26-year-old farmer in Gangarampur village in Bholpur constituency.

There is also a perception that Banerjee is soft on the minority community and on illegal migrants from Bangladesh.

“We want the national register of citizens (NRC) to be implemented in West Bengal. There are many illegal migrants from Bangladesh and the state government is doing nothing. We will become a minority in our own state soon. The state government does not look at the rights of Hindus, it is only concerned about one section of people. The people of Bengal are not getting work because of illegal migration,” said Dilip Biswas of Rao Tadi Choumata village in Ranaghat constituency.

Banerjee has ruled the state for nearly eight years, resulting in a sense of anti-incumbency, which the BJP is exploiting. Even if the party does not win a majority, it wants to build itself up as the main opposition in the state. The next assembly election in West Bengal is due in May 2021, and Banerjee will have completed 10 years in power by then.

With a strategy crafted three years ago, the BJP has set itself a target of winning at least 23 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats. Senior party leaders said the BJP has targeted Lok Sabha seats close to the border with Bangladesh where the problem of illegal migration is rampant.

“Three years ago we had a meeting with our senior leaders and we were given a target of 23 seats. We will win these seats and the Lok Sabha results will be spectacular for the BJP. People have underestimated the BJP in West Bengal but we will achieve our target,” said Dilip Ghosh, BJP president of West Bengal and Medinipur candidate.

The TMC leadership has accused the BJP of using religion in its campaigns and trying to polarise the state by talking about issues related to Durga puja and illegal migration from Bangladesh.

“The BJP has no future in West Bengal. The state government has done a lot of development work. Mamata Banerjee is a popular chief minister and possibly the prime ministerial candidate if the opposition parties are able to defeat the NDA alliance,” said Saugata Roy, the TMC candidate in Dum Dum.

He’s scathing about Modi. “Modi is like a dictator. The TMC was part of the NDA during the government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee but it is not the same BJP anymore. We have to stand up to the BJP to protect the democratic rights of the people,” he said.

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