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PremiumNEW DELHI :Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power after the Lok Sabha elections ended today, according to most exit polls.
NDA is projected to win 287 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha, followed by 128 for the Congress party-led opposition alliance, CVoter exit poll predictions show. According to another poll released by Times Now-VMR, NDA is likely to get 306 seats, a clear majority. Three others — India Today-Axis, CNN-News 18-IPSOS, News Nation and Jan Ki Baat — also project a clear majority for NDA.
Today's Chanakya predict 350 seats for NDA alliance while Congress is expected to get less than 100 seats.
To rule a party needs the support of 272 MPs. Votes are to be counted on Thursday, May 23.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
For Naxal-hit Chhattisgarh, which grapples not just with Left Wing Extremism (LWE), but a massive healthcare crisis as well, the outcome of the exit polls and the subsequent Lok Sabha election results will chart out the fate of the state for the next five years.
The recently concluded assembly elections in the state led to a massive poll drubbing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with three time chief minister Raman Singh, being replaced by a Congress-led government.
For the newly minted Congress government, the Lok Sabha polls are a litmus test to the support they wielded during the assembly polls. While the BJP at present holds 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the Congress is looking at wresting control on at least eight of them.
“We have already fulfilled 18 out of 36 promises in the first 100 days. We are aware of the pulse of the people and the problems they faced under the BJP. We are confident that we will win at least 8-9 seats, if not more," Shailesh Trivedi, senior Congress leader in Chhattisgarh, told Mint.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost three crucial byelections in Uttar Pradesh. These losses raised uncomfortable questions about the massive public support enjoyed by the BJP in the state The party had emerged victorious in 71 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections and also returned to power in the state after the assembly elections in 2017.
The party lost the byelections to Gorakhpur, which was represented by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, and then the Phulpur byelection, which was earlier represented by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. The last bypoll in Kairana in western Uttar Pradesh was lost by the BJP to a candidate from the grand alliance
“It is unfair to compare the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with the bypolls in Uttar Pradesh. The three bypolls were not a test of the popularity of the elected government or a referendum on the election of the Prime Minister. There was no threat to the government during the bypolls," said a senior BJP leader who is part of the election campaign.
With more than just his government at stake, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu might be looking at his last term as chief minister if the TDP loses to the main opposition YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in the 2019 assembly (and Lok Sabha as well) elections.
Naidu, who is looking to play a role at the Centre if the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) wins, might even vacate the chief minister’s post even if the TDP wins in AP, said a senior TDP leader who did not want to be quoted. “(His son) Nara Lokesh is being prepared to take over the party soon. If we lose the state elections, but manage to get 12 to 15 of the Lok Sabha seats (out of 25), then he will move to New Delhi," added the TDP leader.
After four consecutive terms in office, Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) faced the toughest battle during this simultaneous polls primarily due to the Bharataiya Janata Party (BJP) putting up a strong fight in the state.
Despite a missing Congress, which was earlier the principal opposition to the BJD, a resurgent BJP made the polls competitive and is hoping to to bag a good number of Lok Sabha seats in the state. As the seven phase polls in the country comes to a close Sunday evening there is curiosity in the air: will Patnaik get a record fifth term or will Odisha spring a saffron surprise? Read more here.
The ongoing Lok Sabha elections, where polling for the last phase is taking place on Sunday, is a test of survival for Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party. In 2014, the party had won just 44 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in what was one of its historic defeats.
The outcome would be significant for the Congress party. This is the first general election which took place after Gandhi took over the top post. He undertook a series of changes in the party, including trying to strike a balance between the old guard and the young blood. Hence, the outcome of this election and it’s early trends in the exit poll on Sunday will give a peek into what is in store for Gandhi.
Opposition leader and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu has written to the Election Commission, claiming that "continuous" telecast of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "private activities" at Badrinath and Kedarnath shrines is violation of the poll code and should be stopped.
Naidu is in Delhi trying to bring Opposition parties together to keep the BJP out of power after Lok Sabha election results are declared on May 23.
Political parties have spent over ₹53 crore on digital platforms like Google and Facebook between February and May, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accounting for a lion's share of the spending.
According to Facebook's Ad Library Report, there were 1.21 lakh political ads with a total spending of more than ₹26.5 crore between February and May 15 this year.
Similarly, ad spend on Google, YouTube, and partner properties since February 19 stood at ₹27.36 crore with 14,837 ads.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said market is likely to be indecisive till final outcome is known, while extension of volatility cannot be ruled out.
Exit poll is a post-voting poll, which is conducted just after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote. Such polls aim at predicting the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters. They are conducted by a number of organisations. The basic step to predict exit polls is sampling.
According to a notification issued by the Election Commission on April 7, publication of exit poll trends are banned between 7 am of April 11 and 6.30 pm today. "Further, under Section 126(1) (b) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, displaying any election matter including results of any opinion poll or any other poll survey, in any electronic media, would be prohibited during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for conclusion of poll in each of the phases in the respective polling area during the aforesaid elections," the notification said.
Exit poll trends will set the tone for the equity markets in the initial part of the week, while the final outcome of Lok Sabha elections on May 23 would build the road ahead for stocks, analysts said.
Investors should also brace for bouts of volatility in view of the high-octane election related events, they added. Exit poll trends would start coming in on May 19 after the close of voting.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
