NEW DELHI : Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power after the Lok Sabha elections ended today, according to most exit polls.
NDA is projected to win 287 seats in the 545-member Lok Sabha, followed by 128 for the Congress party-led opposition alliance, CVoter exit poll predictions show. According to another poll released by Times Now-VMR, NDA is likely to get 306 seats, a clear majority. Three others — India Today-Axis, CNN-News 18-IPSOS, News Nation and Jan Ki Baat — also project a clear majority for NDA.
Today's Chanakya predict 350 seats for NDA alliance while Congress is expected to get less than 100 seats.
To rule a party needs the support of 272 MPs. Votes are to be counted on Thursday, May 23.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
The BJP is set to clean sweep the Hindi heartland. India Today-Axis poll sees the BJP getting 62-68 seats in Uttar Pradesh, electorally the most crucial state with its 80 seats in the Lok Sabha. Similarly, the News18-IPSOS poll gave the BJP 60-62 seats in the north Indian state.
If predictions of multiple exit polls are to be believed, the southern states appears to have halted the juggernaut of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) once again.
Exit polls conducted by various national and regional TV channels along with other agencies indicate that the BJP may have had limited impact on voters in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, that is ruled by regional satraps and heavily popular local parties. In all five southern states, the BJP battles the image of a north Indian party with little connection to southern issues.
The only exception being Karnataka, where the BJP has performed consistently well in the parliamentary elections since 2004. If you keep Karnataka out, the BJP is likely to get less than 10 seats from all other southern states, according to most exit polls.
The BJP may get a big leg up in Odisha with several exit polls predicting between 6-12 seats for the saffron party with the exception of India Today-Axis My India which forecast a clean sweep for the BJP.
The India Today-Axis My India exit poll shows that BJP will win between 15-19 seats of the total 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state and the rest 2-6 seats will go to Naveen Patnaik-led BJP. In contrast, India TV-CNX predicted a reverse – with BJP bagging six and rest going to BJD.
While Times Now-VMR exit polls showed 12 seats going to BJP, the News18-IPSOS exit poll predicted BJP to win 6-8 seats and BJP winning between 12-14 seats. News18 in fact is one of the few who predicted one or two seats going to Congress.
Amid the ongoing voting for the last phase of Lok Sabha polls Sunday, Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath claimed that the BJP will form the next government at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi with a "massive mandate" of "300 plus seats" of the BJP and "400 plus" of the NDA allies.
"Polling on 67 Lok Sabha seats in UP has already been held, and voting was held on 13 seats today. I can say with confidence that on May 23, when the election results will be declared, the BJP under the leadership of Modiji will accomplish its target of securing 300-plus seats on its own, and 400-plus seats on the strength of its allies," said Adityanath after casting his vote. "In UP, the BJP will be successful in achieving the target of 74-plus seats," said the chief minister, adding "the festival of the democracy should be treated enthusiastically". (PTI)
Odisha Lok Sabha seat projection
BJD: 7 ± 3 Seats
BJP: 14 ± 3 Seats
Congress: Nil
Others: Nil
If exit polls are to be believed, the Narendra Modi government is coming back to power with full majority, but the predictions by poll survey agencies in the past have found not to be close to the actual results.
Riding on 'Modi wave', National Democratic Alliance (NDA) had won 336 seats in 2014 parliamentary elections. None of the major pollsters except Today's Chanakya had expected the NDA's tally would cross the 300 mark.
Chanakya had projected 340 seats for the NDA and 291 for the BJP. The BJP won 282 seat.
However, other exit polls failed to assess the voters' mood with accuracy.
ABP-Nielsen had given 281 seats to NDA while Times Now foresaw 249 seats.
CNN-IBN- CSDS Lokniti showed that the number to be between 272-280
Among others, Headlines Today and India TV- C Voter predicted that the NDA may bag 261-283 and 289 seats, respectively.
Similarly, predictions went wrong in 2009 when exit polls showed the NDA would snatch power from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA).
However, the UPA managed to remain in the power with Congress increasing its tally to 206 from 145 in 2004.
The NDA scored 159 seats as against prediction of 197 by Star News-AC Nielsen and 183 by Times Now. Other polls, NDTV, and Headlines Today had given the NDA 177 and 180, respectively.
In 2004, Outlook-MDRA and Star-C-Voter had predicted incumbent Atal Bihari Vajpayee government returning to power again by giving the 290 seats and 275 seats for the NDA, respectively.
Other pollsters, Aaj Tak, and NDTV also had expected the NDA to do better than Congress and allies by giving it 248-250 seats.
However, all exit polls were wide off the mark as the NDA could bag 159 seats while the Congress and allies, which went on to form government later under UPA banner, won 262 seats.
These pollsters, except NDTV, had predicted that Congress and allies would be restricted to 200 seats.
Despite mega efforts, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is unlikely to open its account in Kerala in the 2019 general elections, according to the IANS-CVOTER exit poll.
The poll has predicted 15 seats for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) -- a gain of 3 seats -- and five for the ruling CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) -- a loss of 3 seats.
The Congress alone is projected to win 12 seats and its alliance partners 3 seats.
India’s stock, rupee and bond markets will likely gain Monday after exit polls showed Modi is likely to return to power, according to Paresh Nayar, Mumbai-based head of currency and money markets at FirstRand Ltd.
“The exit poll results will put to rest any concerns about the present government not coming back," Nayar said.
Congress party spokesman Sanjay Jha said on Twitter the exit poll results were 'almost laughable,' suggesting many voters were too afraid to tell pollsters their real choice in such 'an ugly polarized election.'
NDA to win 267 seats (BJP 218)
UPA may get 127 seats
Others - 148 seats
Dubbing exit polls as "gossip", West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee on Sunday said she doesn't trust such surveys, as the "game plan" is to use them for "manipulation" of EVMs.
Most exit polls forecast a majority for the ruling BJP-led NDA in Lok Sabha elections with varying numbers, as the seven-phase democratic exercise ended Sunday.
"I don't trust Exit Poll gossip. The game plan is to manipulate or replace thousands of EVMs through this gossip. I appeal to all Opposition parties to be united, strong and bold. We will fight this battle together," Banerjee said in a tweet.
In West Bengal, some of the exit polls suggested the TMC getting 24 seats, the BJP bagging 16, the Congress two seats and the Left Front drawing a blank.
Two exit polls telecast by Times Now gave the NDA 296 and 306 seats, while they projected 126 and 132 for the Congress-led UPA.
Nearly 61 per cent voters turned out to cast their vote on Sunday in the seventh and the final phase of the Lok Sabha election held in 59 constituencies across eight states and Union Territories.
Maharashtra Lok Sabha seat projection:
BJP+ 38 ± 5 Seats
Congress+ 10 ± 5 Seats
Others NIL
If the exit polls are to be believed, the Left Front is looking at its worst performance in the Lok Sabha elections with the party facing a near wipeout in West Bengal.
Four exit polls have said that the Left Front will draw a blank in West Bengal where it won two seats out of 42 seats in 2014. In Kerala, where the Left Democratic Front is in power in the state, exit polls say their numbers will be reduced to three to five seats. Kerala sends 20 representatives to the Lok Sabha.
Market analysts said that the markets are expected to rally after exit polls showed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's alliance government is likely to return to power after a mammoth general election that ended on Sunday. Uncertainty around elections outcome had made investors nervous this month with benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty losing nearly 3% in May alone.
After exit poll predictions favoured the ruling NDA government, Motilal Oswal said stock markets are likely to shoot higher tomorrow.
"The exit results are better than the expectations. Markets will move up by 2-3 % in next few days. I am quite optimistic at these levels. Investors should increase equity allocations," Motilal Oswal, CMD, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said.
Exit polls have often gotten things wrong. Most exit polls in 2014 accurately predicted the BJP’s single-party victory. However, they wrongly estimated the BJP would win reelection in 2004 and significantly underestimated the scale of the Congress-led coalition victory in 2009.
"Conventional wisdom suggests the BJP will return to power, albeit with a less strong showing than in 2014, and many exit polls will reflect that projection," said Michael Kugelman, senior associate for South Asia at the Washington, D.C.-based Woodrow Wilson Center. Still, he said "Indian electoral politics are famously unpredictable".
BJP predicted to get 9 seats in Odisha, BJD likely to get 12, according to ABP Exit Poll
If the exit polls results are any indicator, both national parties Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have reasons to cheer in Kerala. The Congress would sweep most of the seats while the BJP would make history in Kerala by winning its first-ever parliamentary seat in the state in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, according to most of the exit polls out so far.
Kerala shot to prominence in polls this time with Congress President Rahul Gandhi contesting from its Wayanad seat and the Sabarimala protests holding out the potential for the BJP to open its account. Both developments are expected to cut into the votes of Communist Party of India (Marxist) led ruling front— a devastating trend for the party which was once India’s first opposition party but is now relegated to ruling only Kerala. The CPM, but, had lined up a strong panel of popular local faces as candidates, whom they hope will give an edge ahead in the fight.
Congress: 8-9 seats
BJP: 3-5 seats
Others: 0-1
ABP Exit Poll 2019 in West Bengal: TMC (24) suffers heavy loss in West Bengal (42 seats), massive gains for BJP (16).
BJP+ 16
Cong+ 2
TMC 24
Multiple exit polls showed that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) edging out the Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) alliance in Karnataka, almost bringing to life all fears of the coalition government.
India Today gave the BJP 21-25 seats while the Congress-JD(S) is projected to get only 3-6 seats. It mentioned “others" getting one seat.
Suvarna News, a Kannada TV news channel gave the BJP 18-20 while the Congress and JD(S) 7-10 seats and one seat for others out of the total 28 in Karnataka.
TV9 gave BJP 18, Congress and JD(S) nine seats and others one seat.
Though there was no clarity on “others" category, there was speculation that this could mean that Sumalatha Amarnath (Sumalatha Ambareesh) may have won against Nikhil Kumaraswamy.
The lower prediction for the coalition indicating that the state could see some turbulence mostly on account of the growing friction between Janata Dal (Secular) and Congress, who joined hands a year ago to circumvent the hung verdict in May last year.
The BJP is confident that it will be able to form the government in the state as the current administration led by chief minister H.D.Kumaraswamy will crumble under the burden of growing divide between the coalition partners.
Exit polls predict a clear edge for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and Congress alliance in Tamil Nadu, pushing the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance onto the back foot in the southern state.
According to the India Today Exit poll, the DMK-Congress alliance is likely to bag 34-38 seats while it gave the AIADMK 0-4 seats.
Times Now gave the Congress-DMK alliance 29 seats while the AIADMK-BJP alliance nine. Times Now indicated that the Puducherry will be bagged by the BJP.
Himachal Pradesh Chief Minister Jai Ram Thakur Sunday claimed the BJP would will all four Lok Sabha seats in the state.
He thanked the voters for peaceful and enthusiastic polling in "record" numbers.
Thakur, in a statement issued here, said the BJP would win Shimla (SC), Mandi, Hamirpur and Kangra LS seats with a record margin, repeating its performance from last time.
He said the voters in the state are supportive of the policies and works of the BJP governments at the centre and state. (PTI)
Many exit polls predicted that SP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh is likely to trump the BJP in the country's politically most crucial state. The BJP had won 71 and its ally Apna Dal two of its 80 seats in 2014.
ABP Exit Polls - BJP will bag 24 out of 29 Lok Sabha seats in Madhya Pradesh. Congress may win in 5 seats.
News Nation Exit Poll predicts that the BJP-led NDA will sail past the magic figure winning 282-290 seats, while UPA may get 118-126 seats.
NDA will retain dominance in Maharashtra with 38-42 seats, according to India Today-Axis poll
ABP Exit Poll predicts that BJP will bag 24 out of 26 seats in Gujarat while Congress will manage to win only the remaining 2 seats
Karnataka Lok Sabha seat projection by Today's Chanakya:
BJP+ 23 ± 4 Seats
Congress+ 5 ± 4 Seats
Others NIL
CVoter projects 29 seats for Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and Jan Ki Baat projects 13-21 for TMC.
News X TV put out the most conservative numbers for BJP, predicting a tally of its NDA combine to come at 242 against UPA’s 162.
ABP exit polls predict a clean sweep for Mahagathbandhan (SP+BSP+RLD) with 56 seats in Uttar Pradesh. BJP which is pegged to win only 22 seats.
BJP 27 ± 2 Seats
Congress 2 ± 2 Seats
Others NIL
If Times Now-VMR exit polls are to be believed, BJP will bag 11 seats in Trinamoll Congress dominated West Bengal.
Seat Share:
BJP+ - 38
Cong+ - 10
Others- 0
Vote Share:
BJP+ - 48.6%
Cong+ - 36.5%
Others – 14.9%
BJP 7 ± 2 Seats
AAP 0 ± 1 Seats
Congress 0 ± 1 Seats
Republic-Jan Ki Baat Exit poll projection: Congress to fall short of 100
Jan Ki Baat exit poll numbers project 305 seats for NDA and 124 seats for UPA.
Seat Share:
BJP+ (NDA): 306
Cong+ (UPA): 132
Others: 104
YSR: 18-20 seats
TDP- 4-6 seats
Others - 0-1
The national capital of Delhi sends only seven members to the Lok Sabha but the outcome of elections in the capital is often a good indicator of the national stakes. Congress’s refusal to forge an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ensured a triangular fight in Delhi.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won all the seven seats last time. Winning four of 13 seats in Punjab in the 2014 general election was the sole consolation for AAP.
This election comes after AAP formed government in the state assembly after winning 67 of the 70 assembly seats in 2015.
For Naxal-hit Chhattisgarh, which grapples not just with Left Wing Extremism (LWE), but a massive healthcare crisis as well, the outcome of the exit polls and the subsequent Lok Sabha election results will chart out the fate of the state for the next five years.
The recently concluded assembly elections in the state led to a massive poll drubbing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with three time chief minister Raman Singh, being replaced by a Congress-led government.
For the newly minted Congress government, the Lok Sabha polls are a litmus test to the support they wielded during the assembly polls. While the BJP at present holds 10 out of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the Congress is looking at wresting control on at least eight of them.
“We have already fulfilled 18 out of 36 promises in the first 100 days. We are aware of the pulse of the people and the problems they faced under the BJP. We are confident that we will win at least 8-9 seats, if not more," Shailesh Trivedi, senior Congress leader in Chhattisgarh, told Mint.
Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost three crucial byelections in Uttar Pradesh. These losses raised uncomfortable questions about the massive public support enjoyed by the BJP in the state The party had emerged victorious in 71 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections and also returned to power in the state after the assembly elections in 2017.
The party lost the byelections to Gorakhpur, which was represented by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath, and then the Phulpur byelection, which was earlier represented by deputy chief minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. The last bypoll in Kairana in western Uttar Pradesh was lost by the BJP to a candidate from the grand alliance
“It is unfair to compare the 2019 Lok Sabha elections with the bypolls in Uttar Pradesh. The three bypolls were not a test of the popularity of the elected government or a referendum on the election of the Prime Minister. There was no threat to the government during the bypolls," said a senior BJP leader who is part of the election campaign.
With more than just his government at stake, Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo and Andhra Pradesh chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu might be looking at his last term as chief minister if the TDP loses to the main opposition YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) in the 2019 assembly (and Lok Sabha as well) elections.
Naidu, who is looking to play a role at the Centre if the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) wins, might even vacate the chief minister’s post even if the TDP wins in AP, said a senior TDP leader who did not want to be quoted. “(His son) Nara Lokesh is being prepared to take over the party soon. If we lose the state elections, but manage to get 12 to 15 of the Lok Sabha seats (out of 25), then he will move to New Delhi," added the TDP leader.
After four consecutive terms in office, Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal (BJD) faced the toughest battle during this simultaneous polls primarily due to the Bharataiya Janata Party (BJP) putting up a strong fight in the state.
Despite a missing Congress, which was earlier the principal opposition to the BJD, a resurgent BJP made the polls competitive and is hoping to to bag a good number of Lok Sabha seats in the state. As the seven phase polls in the country comes to a close Sunday evening there is curiosity in the air: will Patnaik get a record fifth term or will Odisha spring a saffron surprise? Read more here.
The ongoing Lok Sabha elections, where polling for the last phase is taking place on Sunday, is a test of survival for Rahul Gandhi-led Congress party. In 2014, the party had won just 44 out of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in what was one of its historic defeats.
The outcome would be significant for the Congress party. This is the first general election which took place after Gandhi took over the top post. He undertook a series of changes in the party, including trying to strike a balance between the old guard and the young blood. Hence, the outcome of this election and it’s early trends in the exit poll on Sunday will give a peek into what is in store for Gandhi.
Opposition leader and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu has written to the Election Commission, claiming that "continuous" telecast of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "private activities" at Badrinath and Kedarnath shrines is violation of the poll code and should be stopped.
Naidu is in Delhi trying to bring Opposition parties together to keep the BJP out of power after Lok Sabha election results are declared on May 23.
Political parties have spent over ₹53 crore on digital platforms like Google and Facebook between February and May, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accounting for a lion's share of the spending.
According to Facebook's Ad Library Report, there were 1.21 lakh political ads with a total spending of more than ₹26.5 crore between February and May 15 this year.
Similarly, ad spend on Google, YouTube, and partner properties since February 19 stood at ₹27.36 crore with 14,837 ads.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services said market is likely to be indecisive till final outcome is known, while extension of volatility cannot be ruled out.
Exit poll is a post-voting poll, which is conducted just after a voter walks out after casting his or her vote. Such polls aim at predicting the actual result on the basis of the information collected from voters. They are conducted by a number of organisations. The basic step to predict exit polls is sampling.
According to a notification issued by the Election Commission on April 7, publication of exit poll trends are banned between 7 am of April 11 and 6.30 pm today. "Further, under Section 126(1) (b) of the Representation of the People Act, 1951, displaying any election matter including results of any opinion poll or any other poll survey, in any electronic media, would be prohibited during the period of 48 hours ending with the hour fixed for conclusion of poll in each of the phases in the respective polling area during the aforesaid elections," the notification said.
Exit poll trends will set the tone for the equity markets in the initial part of the week, while the final outcome of Lok Sabha elections on May 23 would build the road ahead for stocks, analysts said.
Investors should also brace for bouts of volatility in view of the high-octane election related events, they added. Exit poll trends would start coming in on May 19 after the close of voting.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong
