Velmurugan J., a hospitality sector executive from Kulithalai town near Karur, considers himself lucky. He decided to attend actor Joseph Vijay’s political rally in Karur on 27 September last year, urged on by his colleague who was a die-hard fan of the star.
By noon, they reached Velusamypuram, the venue of the meeting on the Karur-Erode highway, and took a vantage position near a generator shed. The crowd was swelling and the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) leader’s arrival was delayed. His friend turned down Velmurugan’s suggestion that they leave.
“Vijay’s bus was supposed to stop near where we stood but people were standing in every inch of the space. I was not comfortable,” he recalled. The actor-turned politician finally turned up by 7pm.
As Vijay’s bus made its way, splitting the crowd, it caused a round of stampede. Velmurugan was pushed towards the generator shed. His friend fell but managed to move to safety. Many others couldn’t. At least 41 people died that day in the stampede and over 100 were injured in one of the worst such disasters in Tamil Nadu.
The incident left a scar on Velmurugan but he does not want to blame Vijay for it.
“It was badly organized,” he said. His friend, he added, will still vote for TVK in the assembly polls scheduled for 23 April. But he is considering voting for Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by S. Seeman, a former film-maker.
“I like his approach to politics. While most leaders entice people with freebies either to cover their poor performance or grab power, he has been talking against it and promising just good governance,” Velmurugan explained.
TVK is just over two years old, founded by Vijay on 2 February 2024. NTK is a bit older, founded in 2010. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NTK polled 8.2% of the votes. While TVK has made a disruptive entry into Tamil Nadu politics, wooing the young, NTK’s stature has been on the rise, too. Together, they are muddying the waters for the Dravidian rivals, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
The two Dravidian parties have been dominating the state’s politics since the late 1960s. Tamil Nadu, for the first time in history, is seeing a strong four-cornered contest. Some experts say that TVK and NTK could poll as much as 20% or more of the total votes making the electoral outcome anybody’s guess. What is more likely is that the 2026 elections could end the stranglehold of DMK and AIADMK in the state (see chart).
“The dominance of the Dravidian parties is clearly under threat,” said S. Gurumurthy, political commentator and editor of the Tamil magazine Tuglaq.
Balanced governance
In 2021, DMK returned to power by winning 133 of the 234 assembly segments in the Tamil Nadu assembly unseating the AIADMK which was in power for 10 years. In the last five years, the M.K. Stalin-led government has delivered a performance that balanced development and welfarism.
In 2024-25, the state’s real gross state domestic product (GSDP) registered a growth of 11.19%, the strongest performance in 14 years. This growth was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector which grew by 14.74%. In the 2021-25 period, the state, according to its economic survey, registered an average GSDP growth of 8.63%. This is 1.45 percentage points more than the pre-pandemic average growth rate of 7.18%.
“Tamil Nadu is the fastest growing state economy in the country, with inclusive and distributed growth like never before,” said T.R.B. Rajaa, minister for industries, investment promotions and commerce.
Between 2021 and 2025, the state signed as many as 1,179 memorandums of understandings (MoUs) with investors and attracted investments worth ₹12.5 trillion. The minister claimed that 74% of these MoUs are already operational. Major investors include Vietnam’s VinFast, the Tata group (Tata Electronics/Jaguar Land Rover), Hyundai Heavy Engineering, Ola and others.
The government took industrial development into the hinterland reviving the fortunes of under-developed districts such as Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi. These efforts appear to have worked—Tamil Nadu’s per capita income in 2024-25, at ₹3.62 lakh, is much higher than the national average of ₹2.05 lakh (see chart).
The DMK government also focused on welfare, especially targeting women. It offered them ₹1,000 per month. It also made their bus travel free. To boost higher education among girls, the government offered them ₹1,000 per month and started a ‘CM’s breakfast scheme’ for school children. All this has resulted in the total social sector outlay rising from ₹1.13 trillion in 2021-22 to ₹1.57 trillion in 2025-26.
Nonetheless, the state leads the country in gross enrollment ratio for higher education. It has a low infant mortality rate, one of the lowest multi-dimensional poverty rates, and ranks third in the country when it comes to life expectancy (73.4 years).
In run-up to the election, DMK has promised to expand some of these schemes and has also offered coupons worth ₹8,000 per family to buy any gadgets they want. A cross-section of women that Mint spoke to were happy with these welfare measures.
“We see development and welfare as intertwined. Welfare is nothing but an investment for a stronger economy,” said Rajaa while campaigning. He is contesting from Mannargudi, in the state’s delta districts. “Our model of governance—balancing growth and welfare—is a case study for other states to follow,” he added.
Why the anger then?
Such a performance, under normal circumstances, should have generated significant goodwill for DMK. But this writer noticed the presence of anti-incumbency, as he travelled over 1,000 kilometres across north, west and the delta regions of Tamil Nadu.
Rahul Verma, political scientist and a fellow at the Centre for Policy Research, a New Delhi-based think tank, explains this dichotomy. The biggest challenge for DMK, he said, is its strong local units that tend to dominate local governance. “It is this interference that alienates people. This is the reason why DMK has never retained power so far,” he said.
Ask Ajit Kumar, a traditional DMK voter in the temple town of Tiruvannamalai, 200 kilometres from Chennai. He had to pay a huge bribe to local party leaders to get a job for his wife. This has upset him and he wants a change. Many, who did not want to be identified, suffered a similar fate at the hands of local party men. This included land grabbing among other issues.
Also, many of the announced schemes have not reached the beneficiaries. At Tiruchirappalli, S.M. Pandiyan, a timber merchant, is angry that he did not receive any of the welfare schemes the DMK government announced in the last five years. S. Marimuthu, a flower vendor in Pudukkottai, too has suffered a similar fate. Both do not want to vote for DMK this time.
Two friends, both street artists, hanging out at Kalipettai village in Harur constituency, have other complaints. M. Paramasivam, one of them, is not happy with the family politics DMK practices. “Isn’t there no other leader in DMK to lead the party? Why should it be just Karunanidhi’s family?” he asked. His friend V. Raman has a different take. “This government has overlooked men. All its welfare measures are women-focused. What sin have men done?” he asked. “By giving money directly to women, men have lost respect. When I travel in the bus, it is free for my wife but I have to buy a ticket.”
NTK leader Seeman said the last five years have been unbearable for the common man. “The freebies announced by DMK are an attempt to cover-up their incompetence and mollify the people,” he told Mint. “All they have done is worsen Tamil Nadu’s debt which is already in excess of ₹10 trillion.”
Advantage NDA?
It is 10.30am on 13 April and the local AIADMK candidate T.S. Velu is campaigning at Chengam, an assembly constituency near Tiruvannamalai. The crowd, comprising mostly of elderly women, is large. They hear the candidate’s promises silently: ₹10,000 in their bank account as soon as AIADMK gets elected; waiver of farm and educational loans; a fridge; three gas cylinders a year; ₹2,000 per month to women and more.
The AIADMK is, indeed, desperate to return to power. The future of the party, and its leader Edappadi K. Palaniswami, rests on how well the party performs in this election. He is leaving no stone unturned. But the question in everyone’s mind is whether the party under his leadership has the clout to convert the anti-incumbency into a victory.
“He is definitely not as strong as M.G. Ramachandran or J. Jayalalithaa,” said Raji, a farmer with three acres at Arasanelli village in Chengam constituency. He had voted for AIADMK in the last polls. This election, he is betting on Stalin.
Then there is the four-cornered contest. If it was a straight fight between AIADMK and DMK fronts, the anti-incumbency votes would have shifted toward AIADMK. But that is not the case now.
However, Gurumurthy said that AIADMK-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has the edge—the tie-up with the political coalition was announced a year ago, in April 2025.
“People of Tamil Nadu have always voted for the winning combination. The anti-DMK votes will consolidate to NDA,” he explained.
It is unclear if this will happen considering the groundswell in favour of Vijay, especially among first time and young voters.
Also, in the past, a disgruntled DMK and AIADMK voter did not have an option for change. The idea of voting for the opposite side was unpalatable. But today TVK and NTK are offering them an option.
Known unknowns
Yoga Reddy is a siddha doctor and has his clinic adjacent to a famous Hanuman temple in Namakkal. He is supporting Seeman this time. Reason: Seeman’s promise to protect forests.
“I used to get most of my medicinal herbs from the nearby Kolli Hills but they have become very challenging these days due to unbridled development,” he said.
Over the years, Seeman has built a strong following, especially among young voters with his principled policies. In the 2026 elections, the party is looking to double its vote share.
Vijay’s entry, however, has spoiled its chances as TVK is expected to cut into NTK’s youth base.
“Vijay’s entry has affected our calculations,” admitted Seeman. He has broad-based his support base and hopes to continue growing his vote share. “In politics, Vijay is like a junior artist. Let us see if he has the wherewithal to play a long game,” he said.
Novice or otherwise, Vijay has complicated what should have been a straightforward election. “He is expected to get a good share of votes but is unlikely to form the government,” said Verma from the Centre for Policy Research. “He will, however, have a significant influence on the outcome of the elections.”
Vijay, in short, has triggered many known unknowns.
Most importantly, will his fan base get converted into votes? Gurumurthy thinks otherwise. “You cannot convert a crowd into a party,” he said.
If Vijay does manage to do so, it is not clear whose votes he would eat into. If it is more of AIADMK votes, DMK will sail through and retain the government. If it is DMK votes, then AIADMK will have an advantage. The extent of his vote share will also decide whether Tamil Nadu will end up with a coalition government—either DMK-led or AIADMK-led.
What is known is that Tamil Nadu’s electoral politics is changing. For the two Dravidian parties, it is a battle to preserve their clout.