CHENNAI: In what appears to be a historic verdict, Joseph Vijay—who formed the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) a little over two years ago—is set to become Tamil Nadu’s chief minister.

As of counting trends at 7.30pm, Vijay, who formed TVK a little over two years ago, was in a clear lead but looked like he will need outside support or have to cobble together alliances to become Tamil Nadu’s new chief minister.

Vijay’s surge marks the end of nearly six decades of Dravidian dominance. The two Dravidian majors, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), were trailing behind with the closest being the DMK-Congress combine at 71 wins and leads at 7.30pm.

The bigger question now is governance. A political novice, Vijay will be judged on whether he can sustain momentum in a state that has consistently outperformed peers on growth and social indicators.

Tamil Nadu has long punched above its weight. With just 4% of India’s land area and 6% of its population, it contributed 9.4% to the country’s GDP in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25). The state's economy has also outpaced the national growth rate of 6.5%. Even as foreign direct investment (FDI) into India has slowed, foreign investors have continued to back the state, with inflows rising 54% in FY25. The state government has balanced growth with welfare: social sector spending has risen 40% over the past five years, while outcomes in health and other indicators have improved. Tamil Nadu has among the lowest levels of multidimensional poverty, and its per capita income of ₹3.62 lakh far exceeds the national average of ₹2.05 lakh. The risk now is whether a surge in competitive populism could upset that balance.

Enviable growth

Tamil Nadu posted a robust state GDP (GSDP) growth of 11.19% in FY25, driven largely by manufacturing. The state leads the country in the number of factories and remains a major investment destination, attracting ₹12.5 trillion between 2021 and 2026. Strong focus on manufacturing has paid off. Average GSDP growth rose to 8.63% in 2021-25, from 7.18% in the pre-Covid period (2014-19).

Growth has also become more geographically broad-based, with poorer districts such as Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi drawing large investments.

“In the last five years, Tamil Nadu has become the fastest growing state economy of the country, with inclusive and distributed growth like never before,” TRB Rajaa, industries minister in the outgoing DMK government, recently told Mint.

Social sector thrust

While the state went after investments, it did not lose sight of its social commitments. It implemented balanced governance. Social sector outlays rose to ₹1.58 trillion in 2025-26 from ₹1.13 trillion in 2021-22. Key welfare schemes include a breakfast programme for school students, free bus travel for women, a ₹1,000 monthly cash transfer to women, and support for women pursuing higher education. The state remains among the top performers in health and education, with multidimensional poverty at just 1.43%.

Rise in populism

Not many know that Tamil Nadu is the birthplace of the freebie culture. It took root in 2006 when then DMK leader M. Karunanidhi promised free colour televisions to voters and followed through after winning. He won, and the practice has since deepened and spread.

This election cycle has seen an escalation. Political parties have promised higher cash transfers, free bus travel for men, household appliances, free liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), or cooking gas, cylinders and even ₹8,000 vouchers for consumer purchases. Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) has criticized such giveaways as a cover for governance failures, though it is unlikely to win seats.

Vijay, too, has made expansive promises: ₹2,500 a month for women, six free LPG cylinders a year, restoration of the old pension scheme, unemployment allowances, support for jobless graduates, and ₹15,000 annually for mothers or guardians of girls studying up to Class 12. The fiscal cost will be significant, raising questions about how these commitments will be funded without straining the state’s finances. With Vijay an untested administrator, whether he can preserve Tamil Nadu’s growth-welfare balance remains an open question.

CHENNAI: In what appears to be a historic verdict, Joseph Vijay—who formed the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) a little over two years ago—is set to become Tamil Nadu’s chief minister.

As of counting trends at 7.30pm, Vijay, who formed TVK a little over two years ago, was in a clear lead but looked like he will need outside support or have to cobble together alliances to become Tamil Nadu’s new chief minister.

Vijay’s surge marks the end of nearly six decades of Dravidian dominance. The two Dravidian majors, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), were trailing behind with the closest being the DMK-Congress combine at 71 wins and leads at 7.30pm.

The bigger question now is governance. A political novice, Vijay will be judged on whether he can sustain momentum in a state that has consistently outperformed peers on growth and social indicators.

Tamil Nadu has long punched above its weight. With just 4% of India’s land area and 6% of its population, it contributed 9.4% to the country’s GDP in fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25). The state's economy has also outpaced the national growth rate of 6.5%. Even as foreign direct investment (FDI) into India has slowed, foreign investors have continued to back the state, with inflows rising 54% in FY25. The state government has balanced growth with welfare: social sector spending has risen 40% over the past five years, while outcomes in health and other indicators have improved. Tamil Nadu has among the lowest levels of multidimensional poverty, and its per capita income of ₹3.62 lakh far exceeds the national average of ₹2.05 lakh. The risk now is whether a surge in competitive populism could upset that balance.

Enviable growth

Tamil Nadu posted a robust state GDP (GSDP) growth of 11.19% in FY25, driven largely by manufacturing. The state leads the country in the number of factories and remains a major investment destination, attracting ₹12.5 trillion between 2021 and 2026. Strong focus on manufacturing has paid off. Average GSDP growth rose to 8.63% in 2021-25, from 7.18% in the pre-Covid period (2014-19).

Growth has also become more geographically broad-based, with poorer districts such as Krishnagiri, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi drawing large investments.

“In the last five years, Tamil Nadu has become the fastest growing state economy of the country, with inclusive and distributed growth like never before,” TRB Rajaa, industries minister in the outgoing DMK government, recently told Mint.

Social sector thrust

While the state went after investments, it did not lose sight of its social commitments. It implemented balanced governance. Social sector outlays rose to ₹1.58 trillion in 2025-26 from ₹1.13 trillion in 2021-22. Key welfare schemes include a breakfast programme for school students, free bus travel for women, a ₹1,000 monthly cash transfer to women, and support for women pursuing higher education. The state remains among the top performers in health and education, with multidimensional poverty at just 1.43%.

Rise in populism

Not many know that Tamil Nadu is the birthplace of the freebie culture. It took root in 2006 when then DMK leader M. Karunanidhi promised free colour televisions to voters and followed through after winning. He won, and the practice has since deepened and spread.

This election cycle has seen an escalation. Political parties have promised higher cash transfers, free bus travel for men, household appliances, free liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), or cooking gas, cylinders and even ₹8,000 vouchers for consumer purchases. Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) has criticized such giveaways as a cover for governance failures, though it is unlikely to win seats.

Vijay, too, has made expansive promises: ₹2,500 a month for women, six free LPG cylinders a year, restoration of the old pension scheme, unemployment allowances, support for jobless graduates, and ₹15,000 annually for mothers or guardians of girls studying up to Class 12. The fiscal cost will be significant, raising questions about how these commitments will be funded without straining the state’s finances. With Vijay an untested administrator, whether he can preserve Tamil Nadu’s growth-welfare balance remains an open question.