TMC vs BJP — who is likely to win if Lok Sabha elections are held today in West Bengal? New survey offers hint

The India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) 2026 survey revealed that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) is likely to repeat its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and retain almost all the seats if the Lok Sabha elections were held today.

The survey was released at a time when the West Bengal Assembly elections are around the corner. While the MOTN 2026 does not offer accurate projections for the upcoming assembly polls, it may serve as a rough indicator of the voters' current mood in the poll-bound state.

The West Bengal Assembly elections will be held this year, putting Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's governance to the test. The Trinamool Congress (TMC) chief has been the chief minister of West Bengal since 2011 and will aim for a fourth term as CM in the 2026 assembly polls.

What did the survey reveal?

The India Today–CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) 2026 survey revealed that Mamata Banerjee's TMC is likely to repeat its performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and retain almost all the seats it won that year if the Lok Sabha elections were held today.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC had won a majority of 29 seats in the total 42 parliamentary constituencies. The BJP won 12 seats, and the Congress bagged only one. This was despite several opinion polls giving the BJP an edge over the TMC in Bengal in the general elections.

The 2026 MOTN survey, released recently, showed that if the Lok Sabha elections were held in West Bengal today, the TMC’s tally was likely to dip slightly to 28 seats.

In contrast, the August MOTN survey had projected the TMC to increase its tally to 31 seats, which has now been revised downward to 28 seats in the latest edition.

Meanwhile, the latest edition of the survey revealed that the BJP would have marginally increased its seat share to 14 seats had the general elections happened today. This result would have marked a rise from the 11 seats the BJP was projected to win in the MOTN survey’s August edition.

According to the 2026 MOTN survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is expected to register a three-percentage-point rise in its vote share, increasing from 39% to 42%.

West Bengal Assembly elections

The MOTN survey was released about two months before the West Bengal Assembly elections.

Ahead of the West Bengal Assembly election 2026, the BJP has finalised a detailed list of Prabasi leaders from various states to strengthen its election campaign across different zones of the state, including Nabadwip, Kolkata, Howrah-Hooghly-Midnapore region, news agency ANI reported.

The list includes senior leaders, legislators, former ministers, organisational office-bearers, and youth leaders deputed from several states such as Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Bihar, and Tripura.

These leaders will work in coordination with the West Bengal BJP unit to oversee organisational activities, election preparedness, and grassroots mobilisation in the allotted districts.

Meanwhile, West Bengal BJP state president Samik Bhattacharya appointed in-charges for the respective assembly constituencies for the Legislative Assembly elections 2026. Bhattacharya announced the Assembly in-charges on all 294 seats.

Union Home Minister and senior BJP leader Amit Shah is also expected to visit West Bengal on 30 and 31 January. During his two-day tour, Amit Shah is expected to hold important organisational and political meetings, further energising the party cadre and reviewing preparations for the upcoming political challenges in the state.