What exit polls predicted for BJP, TMC, UDF and DMK in Bengal, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Assam: A quick review

Assemly Election Results 2026: Results day has arrived for one of the most expansive state polls in recent years, with counting underway across West Bengal's 294 seats, Tamil Nadu's 234, Kerala's 140, Assam's 126 and Puducherry's 30. Counting began at 8:00 am with postal ballots, followed by rounds on electronic voting machines (EVMs). Early trends are expected by mid-morning, with official declarations anticipated from 5:00 pm onwards.

Exit polls, while not always accurate, offer a preliminary indication of where mandates may be heading. Across all five states, pollsters were notably divided, with wide variance between agencies on several key outcomes.

West Bengal: Exit Polls Tip BJP, But TMC Fights Back

West Bengal has been among the most fiercely contested battlegrounds of this election cycle, with centre-state rivalry, controversy over the special intensive revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, and a bitter campaign trail shaping one of the most closely watched contests in the country.

A majority of exit polls have projected a BJP victory in the 294-member assembly, with at least nine pollsters declaring the party the likely winner. Today's Chanakya and Praja Poll have predicted a decisive BJP win, with projections of 192 seats and 178-208 seats, respectively.

A Poll of Polls placed both the TMC and BJP at approximately 145 seats each, indicating just how tight the contest could prove to be. According to P-MARQ, the BJP is expected to win between 150 and 175 constituencies, whilst the Trinamool Congress may secure between 118 and 138 seats. P-Matrize placed the BJP between 146 and 161 seats and the TMC between 125 and 140.

Some pollsters have kept the BJP ahead but forecast a closer finish. VoteVibe projected 153 seats for the BJP and 137 for the TMC, whilst People's Insight predicted 149 seats for the BJP and 144 for the TMC. Most agencies predict that Congress and the Left Front-All India Secular Front alliance will win between two and 10 seats between them.

The sole outlier is Peoples Pulse, which has predicted a TMC victory with between 177 and 187 seats.

Tamil Nadu: Vijay's TVK Shakes Up the DMK-AIADMK Contest

Tamil Nadu has thrown up its most unpredictable contest in years, with actor-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) entering its debut election contesting all 234 seats independently, without aligning with either the DMK or AIADMK-led alliance.

Most exit polls project that the DMK-led alliance under Chief Minister M K Stalin will retain power. A 9-3 prediction split broadly favours the ruling alliance. However, Axis My India has emerged as a significant outlier, projecting TVK as the single-largest party with between 98 and 120 seats, the DMK-led alliance at 92 to 100 seats, and the five-party BJP-led alliance at 22 to 32 seats. Axis My India also placed Vijay ahead of Stalin as voters' preferred choice for the next chief minister, with 37% support compared to Stalin's 35%.

Other agencies told a different story. Peoples Pulse projected the DMK-led alliance at between 125 and 145 seats and TVK at just two to six seats. Matrize forecast 122 to 132 seats for the DMK alliance and between zero and six for TVK. P-MARQ placed the DMK alliance at 125 to 145 seats and TVK at one to six, whilst People's Insight projected TVK at between 30 and 40 seats.

News18-VoteVibe, Times Now-JVC and Spick Media have bucked the broader trend entirely, forecasting a victory for the AIADMK-BJP-led faction.

The wide variance across agencies makes Tamil Nadu one of the most genuinely uncertain contests of the day.

Kerala: UDF Edges Ahead as LDF Faces Anti-Incumbency

Kerala is shaping up for a far tighter contest than the state witnessed at its last election, with anti-incumbency building against the ruling Left Democratic Front government of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan.

A poll of polls gives a slight edge to the Congress-led United Democratic Front, with approximately 72 seats in the 140-member assembly, while the LDF is projected not far behind at around 63 seats. The BJP-led NDA is expected to make only a marginal impact.

Most pollsters have predicted a UDF comeback. Axis My India projected the UDF at between 78 and 90 seats and the LDF at between 49 and 62 seats. CVoter forecast a comfortable UDF victory at 82 to 94 seats. People's Pulse placed the UDF at 75 to 85 seats and the LDF at 55 to 65, whilst VoteVibe projected the UDF at 70 to 80 seats.

P-MARQ stands as a notable exception, predicting a majority for the ruling LDF. Today's Chanakya has forecast a hung assembly with the UDF narrowly ahead.

If projections hold, it would mark a historic break from Kerala's well-established pattern of alternating governments and deliver a second consecutive term to the opposition alliance.

Assam: BJP Predicted to Sweep State, Eyes Set on Crossing 100 Seats

Of all the states going to the count today, Assam presents the clearest predicted outcome. Exit polls have unanimously forecast a BJP victory, with most agencies projecting the BJP-led NDA at 90 seats or above in the 126-member assembly.

Axis My India projected the BJP at between 88 and 100 seats, with the Congress estimated at 24 to 36. Matrize predicted a comfortable BJP majority of 85 to 95 seats, with the Congress at 25 to 32. Today's Chanakya forecast 102 seats for the NDA alliance, and VoteVibe predicted between 90 and 100 seats.

The poll of polls suggests the BJP could secure approximately 90 seats, significantly ahead of the Congress which is projected to remain around the 30-seat mark. A result of this scale would further strengthen the position of Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who took charge after the 2021 assembly polls when the BJP-led NDA retained power with 75 seats.

Notably, Assam was among the states where exit polls in 2021 came closest to the actual outcome, lending slightly more weight to the projections this time around.

Puducherry: AINRC-BJP Coalition Faces DMK-Congress Alliance

In the 30-seat Union Territory of Puducherry, the contest is between the AINRC-BJP coalition and the DMK-Congress alliance, rounding out a day of counting that spans vastly different political landscapes across the country.

How the Election Commission Declares Final Results

Even after all rounds of counting are completed, results are not declared immediately. The returning officer compiles the final tally and cross-verifies it against all records, after which candidates or their agents are given an opportunity to review the figures and raise any objections. Once cleared, the officer formally announces the winner, signs the result sheet and submits it to the Election Commission of India. Only at this point does the result become official and appear on the ECI dashboard, after which the winning candidate receives a formal victory certificate.