Sitaare Zameen Par box office prediction: Early estimates not in sync with Aamir Khan's stardom, says expert

Bollywood superstar Aamir Khan returns to the big screen after a gap of three years. His long absence could lead to one of two outcomes – either a massive turnout at the box office from eager fans, or the risk that audiences may have forgotten the unique magic only Aamir brings to the screen. Ahead of its Friday release, Livemint reached out to industry analyst Taran Adarsh for his early box office predictions.

Sitaare Zameen Par box office prediction

It seems Aamir Khan's spiritual sequel to Taare Zameen Par might see an opening business of a single digit.

According to the industry tracker Sacnilk, as of 9 pm Thursday, Sitaare Zameen Par collected ₹2.21 crore from the advance booking. Considering blocked seats, the film's revenue now stands at ₹5.59 crore after selling over 79,000 tickets so far.

‘Sitaare Zameen Par is a word-of-mouth film’

Taran Adarsh weighed in, “The advance booking is not in sync with the star status of Aamir Khan. Yes, the advances should have been better because Aamir Khan returns to the big screen after a big gap with his own production, starring in it. It should have been better.”

“I genuinely believe Sitaare Zameen Par is a word-of-mouth film. It should grow with word of mouth,” he added.

Sitaare Zameen Par will be screened in 8,747 shows across India. The film will be released in Hindi, Tamil and Telugu.

Releasing on 20 June, the film sees no major clash at the ticket window.

Adarsh points out, “The film enjoys the advantage of a solo release. There's Housefull 5, which will be entering the 3rd week tomorrow, so I guess there's not much of an opposition for this film. It's an open run as of now.”

New strategies by Aamir Khan for Sitaare Zameen Par

Sitaare Zameen Par will mark its debut exclusively in cinema halls, going against the current trend of OTT releases. Unlike the usual 4 to 8-week window between theatrical and digital premieres, the film will not be released on any streaming platform at all, as confirmed by Aamir Khan.

Adarsh opined about the new strategies adopted by Aamir and his team.

"There was always an 8-week gap between theatrical and OTT release. This time, Aamir has decided to only release it in cinemas. It all depends on how the audience takes to this film, how the word of mouth is, and then I guess we will be able to know if this idea of having a straight theatrical release without any OTT release works or not. Right now, it's a wait and watch."

"Not just Aamir, but the entire industry is looking at it because this is something that has not happened in the past. People sign lucrative contracts with digital players, and depending on how the film fares, after 10–12 weeks or maybe later, they premiere it on a digital platform.

We will be looking at it closely. Theatrical business is very important. I stand with Aamir on that front."

Sitaare Zameen Par early estimates box office collection day 1 

However, it is certain that the film might not register a double-digit figure on Friday. The business is likely to grow over the weekend.

“The opening numbers, to me, are looking to be in single digits unless a miraculous turnaround happens on Friday and the film gathers momentum, picks up post-noon shows, and registers double digits. As of now, Thursday, it is looking at a single-digit opening,” the industry insider concluded.

Sitaare Zameen Par is directed by RS Prasanna. It is produced by Aamir Khan and Aparna Purohit.

It also stars Genelia in the lead, alongside 10 special actors in the cast.