A nation on edge fears an election careening toward an ugly finish

The facts of the attack on Trump at a Butler, Pa., campaign event are unclear, and Trump indicated that he was unscathed save for a bullet that pierced the upper part of his right ear. But the gunfire aimed at a former and potentially future president has amplified the feeling many Americans have held that this year’s presidential election is careening toward an ugly finish.

A nation barely removed from the violent end to the 2020 election, which included several deaths tied to the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, has since been whipsawed by a cascade of jolts to the system. A House speaker ousted. A former president, Trump, indicted on criminal charges four times, only to win his party’s nod to reclaim the White House. A presidential debate only two weeks ago that found the commander in chief, Joe Biden, significantly compromised in his ability to express thoughts and recall words.

Now, America is faced with the realization that political violence has struck at a moment when the nation is on the cusp of deciding its next president.

While the motives of Trump’s attacker are unknown—officials say he is now dead—an immediate question is whether political leaders themselves have created the kindling for this and other incidents by fueling political polarization—and whether they will take steps to calm the waters. The nation’s civic debate, now casually referred to as political combat, has driven the country to new levels of partisan distrust, with nearly two-thirds in each party believing those in the other party are immoral, dishonest and close-minded, the Pew Research Center has found.

“In my lifetime, this is the most uneasy things have ever been," said Chuck Blakeley, a 60-year-old marble and tile installer from Butler, Pa., who walked with his son down to the police blockade near the site of the Trump rally on Saturday evening after hearing about the shooting.

Seth Blakeley, 25, could hear Trump speaking from the microphones while at a friend’s house during the rally. “I don’t understand how it happened," said the younger Blakeley, who works as a machinist and, like his father, described himself as an independent voter. “It’s bad news for everyone. It’s only going to get worse from here."

Trump himself commonly uses inflated and at times violent rhetoric to generate anger at Biden and fortify loyalty among his supporters. He has warned of “potential death and destruction" if charged with crimes and has suggested that he would be justified to prosecute his political opponents if returned to power. He has long called his supporters “patriots," as if his opponents aren’t. Americans have almost become inured to the hyperbole in his assertions that “pink-haired Communists" are taking over schools and that his tougher border policy is needed “to keep foreign, Christian-hating communists, Marxists and socialists out of America."

Indicted for his actions intended to retain power after the 2020 election, Trump in last month’s presidential debate declined to say unequivocally that he would accept the results of the next one.

Some Republicans say Democratic rhetoric is at fault. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, a potential choice to be Trump’s vice presidential running mate, blamed President Biden for Saturday’s shooting incident. “The central premise of the Biden campaign is that President Donald Trump is an authoritarian fascist who must be stopped at all costs," he wrote on the social media platform X. “That rhetoric led directly to President Trump’s attempted assassination."

The danger in our divisions is apparent. Americans don’t have to reach as far back as 1968, the year Robert F. Kennedy, then a presidential candidate, and Martin Luther King Jr.were struck down, for examples of political violence.

In late 2018, just before that year’s midterm elections, a Florida man mailed pipe bombs to prominent critics of then-President Trump, among them former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, then-Sen. Kamala Harris and others. Two years later, six men were arrested for plotting to kidnap Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and try her for treason before that year’s presidential election.

The Capitol police have tracked an increase in threats against members of Congress. In 2017, a gunman with a history of criticizing then-President Trump and GOP policies opened fire on Republican congressmen at a baseball practice, shooting four people and leaving GOP Rep. Steve Scalise of Louisiana in critical condition.

After an attack on former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband in 2022, Capitol police stepped up security for congressional leadership, citing the “contentious political climate."

Judges and prosecutors have also been targeted. Since 2021, threats against federal judges have doubled to 457 in the fiscal year that ended September 2023, according to the U.S. Marshals Service. In 2022, a California man was arrested outside the home of Justice Brett Kavanaugh with a suitcase and backpack containing a pistol and ammunition, along with a crow bar and duct tape, according to court records.

Abundant polling shows that Americans say they are dispirited by the recent course of politics. In Pew surveys, two-thirds say politics leaves them exhausted, and nearly nine in 10 people say Republicans and Democrats are more interested in fighting with each other than solving problems. The prospect of political violence is sure to leave Americans even more disheartened.

“I think a lot of people just want to return to where we were," said Bill Bailey, a 62-year-old Trump supporter from Grand Haven, Mich., who was selling merchandise near Saturday’s Trump rally, citing a time when inflation and gas prices were lower. “People want some normalcy back in their lives. It’s been crazy for the last eight years."

Blakeley, the tile installer, said that what gave him hope in this fraught moment is the fact that he believes Americans are the most resilient people on earth. “Tomorrow’s another day," he said. “And come Monday, I will still be putting tile in."

C. Ryan Barber contributed to this article.