Asian allies are doomed to hug Donald Trump close

Eight years ago, the German government made a childish mistake when it released a behind-the-scenes photo of President Donald Trump, arms folded and a defiant smile on his face, being confronted by European leaders at a G7 summit in Canada. The image went viral, for it exposed America’s isolation. (Mr Trump was blocking a summit communiqué.) Germany’s then-chancellor, Angela Merkel, is seen leaning imploringly towards Mr Trump. The raised eyebrows of France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, convey Gallic incredulity. Only one leader looks unimpressed by this Euro-ambush: the late Abe Shinzo of Japan.

Years later, the picture—and its leaking—still makes high-ranking Japanese officials wince. In Tokyo it is argued that whenever allies isolate Mr Trump, they are not showing independence, but committing an act of self-harm.

As another G7 is held in France, from June 15-17th, a divide can be seen between American allies in Europe, and those in Asia. European politicians and citizens rather like it when America looks lonely or weak, for they resent Mr Trump as a bully. Increasingly, they talk of a need to stand up to two predatory superpowers, America and China, and of middle powers co-operating to uphold a benign and equitable rules-based order.

That was the vision offered by Mark Carney, Canada’s prime minister, when he addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos in January. Mr Carney enthused about mid-size countries forming coalitions of the willing to defend their values and resist economic coercion by great powers. The audience, thrilled to hear America and China being bashed, gave him a standing ovation.

In Tokyo the Carney pitch is seen as an embarrassing fantasy. There is head-shaking dismay, too, at the thought that Europeans and Canadians could possibly believe that Mr Trump and China’s Xi Jinping pose comparable threats to their security, prosperity and autonomy. The claim is adolescent in its daftness.

Asian allies are wary of foreign policies based on values. More concretely, Japanese elites have no interest in joining any coalition that purports to free middle powers from their dependence on America and China alike. They fear a China that has grown strong and is now making its move. Japan is on the front line, while its giant neighbour amasses military firepower and uses its dominance of rare earths and other industrial inputs to hold other economies to ransom. To Japanese eyes, China is pursuing regional and quite possibly global dominance and only America has the clout to contain it.

Japan longs for the allies to get serious. Well-meaning middle powers are not about to deter China from an attack on Taiwan. Meanwhile, rogues are on the march, some of them in lockstep. Among them are Japan’s neighbours Russia and North Korea. Nobody expects Europeans or Canada to ride to the rescue. Australia is spoken of fondly, but with no illusions about its limited might.

Mr Carney and friends should worry that Japan does not buy their plan for middle powers to save the world. For if a coalition of middling countries ever did take shape, Japan would be one of its natural leaders. Though greying fast, the country still has 123m people and the world’s fourth-largest economy. It boasts some world-class technology and engineering firms and a shipbuilding industry. Its armed forces are being strengthened, testing to breaking-point the post-1945 shibboleth that Japan maintains only self-defence forces. It is a supplier of new and second-hand warships to Asia-Pacific governments that fear China. It rescued a trans-Pacific trade pact after America abandoned it.

Closer to home, Japan is cautiously deepening defence and security ties with South Korea. The south has not forgotten historic crimes committed during Japan’s occupation of Korea. But nor can it ignore the dangers posed by North Korea, its fanatical, nuclear-armed poor cousin.

While other democratic incumbents are stalked by populists, Japan’s prime minister, Takaichi Sanae, in February led her mainstream party to a thumping majority. That has not stopped Chinese propagandists from calling Ms Takaichi a fascist warmonger, after she suggested that Japan’s pacifist constitution would not preclude defending Taiwan in a conflict. Other governments study how Japan has laboured (with partial success) to reduce its dependence on China for rare-earth minerals and other inputs.

No escaping superpower domination

For all those strengths, Japan still needs America. There is no Plan B, is the line in Tokyo. If Japan can be glimpsed hedging against a less reliable America, for instance by making more of its own weapons, that is called Plan A with an asterisk. Mr Trump or his successors cannot be allowed to weaken their commitment to Asia. Nor does the region have a better alternative to America’s nuclear umbrella. The game is to show why Japan is indispensable to America’s prosperity and technological primacy. In the past, Japanese politicians would arrive in Washington spouting bromides about liberty and democracy. Now, they brag of helping America to build an AI tech stack that will leave China in the dust.

To be sure, Japanese elites shudder when MAGA attacks American institutions: plenty of them studied at Ivy League schools. But as an ally, Japan is patient and unemotional. To Europeans or Canadians who see Americans as kin, Trumpian aggression feels like a betrayal. In Japan America is not family: it is the superpower that defeated then helped to rebuild the country. Against that, Japan has more to lose than many Western allies do. If America left Asia, very quickly Japan and its neighbours would have to accommodate China in unwelcome and wrenching ways. Japan would much rather do whatever it takes to keep America close. It is all very pragmatic. Other allies should take note, and grow up.