BEIJING—The turmoil in the global energy market from war in the Middle East is exactly the sort of emergency scenario that China has long been preparing for.
Worried that conflict in the region could wreak havoc on its economy by cutting off the supply of oil, Beijing has been spending lavishly to limit how much it needs to import, while building up large stockpiles and diversifying where it gets its energy from.
The Iran war has brought many of those fears to fruition, serving as the biggest test yet of China’s bid to fortify its economy against what it views as reckless behavior by the U.S.
So far, Beijing is weathering the storm.
Iran has sought to effectively cut off energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway linking producers such as Saudi Arabia to oil-importing nations in Asia and beyond. While China is the world’s largest importer of oil in terms of total barrels, it is less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz for energy than other economies such as Japan and South Korea.
Insulating China from energy shocks has been a priority for leader Xi Jinping. Core elements of its strategy include ramping up the use of electric vehicles to replace gas-guzzlers while simultaneously pumping more crude from inside China’s borders. A deepening energy partnership with Russia, meanwhile, has helped curtail Beijing’s reliance on the Middle East.
At the same time, China has accumulated massive oil stockpiles, likely totaling more than 1.2 billion barrels, enough to cover its imports for around 100 days or more.
In a sign of continued stockpiling by Beijing in the lead-up to the Iran war, customs data released Tuesday showed that China’s crude imports rose nearly 16% in the first two months of 2026 compared with a year earlier.
“Their strategy has really given them a huge buffer,” said Michal Meidan, who researches China’s energy systems at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
That doesn’t mean Beijing is happy with the supply disruptions. The longer the conflict goes on and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, the bigger the costs become for a country whose economy is already struggling. In the short term, industrial and chemical companies could be squeezed by shortages of liquefied natural gas.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. Brent crude prices initially shot up to nearly $120 a barrel before falling to around $90 per barrel as of Tuesday. Officials from the Group of Seven industrialized economies—which includes the U.S., Canada and France—convened on Monday to discuss the possibility of drawing down some reserves.
A key tenet of China’s philosophy on energy security is to produce as much as possible of what it needs from resources within its borders. Because China’s oil and gas reserves are limited and expensive to access, it has given priority to using electricity wherever possible, such as by replacing gasoline-powered cars with electric models. China has abundant domestic reserves of coal to generate electricity as well as a vast supply chain for making solar panels and wind turbines. The world’s largest power grid helps China tie its electricity network together.
China’s energy-security strategy is one aspect of a broader campaign to become as self-reliant as possible to guard against intensifying global volatility. From advanced robots to agriculture, party leaders increasingly prefer to produce what they need as a way to hedge against global security risks, even when goods can be acquired more cheaply through international trade.
While China’s oil demand is expected to peak within the next couple of years, its consumption is more likely to plateau than plummet at least through the end of the decade, according to the International Energy Agency. That means that it will continue to face exposure to the Middle East for the foreseeable future.
China will need to shore up ties to the new leadership in Tehran, a key partner in the region that it has been cultivating for decades. While China’s foreign minister has criticized the attacks on Iran in recent days and called for a cease-fire, China’s government has given little indication that it will offer Tehran much more than rhetorical support.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman on Monday said China would take measures to safeguard its energy security, but didn’t say whether it would release any of its oil reserves to help stabilize the oil market. China’s National Energy Administration didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Beyond the Middle East, the Iran war could make Russia an even bigger supplier of energy to China, for instance by pushing forward a new natural-gas pipeline linking the countries. Known as the Power of Siberia 2, the long-discussed project raises the risk that Beijing becomes overreliant on Russia for energy. But analysts say if instability persists in the Middle East, that concern could take a back seat to China ensuring it can secure all the gas it needs.
More fundamentally, the attack on Iran will only reinforce China’s bid for energy self-reliance, said Neil Beveridge, who tracks China’s energy sector at Bernstein Research.
“I do think they will feel vindicated,” he said.
Write to Brian Spegele at Brian.Spegele@wsj.com