China tries to play the role of peacemaker in Ukraine

Chinese officials in recent weeks have floated a proposal to the Trump team through intermediaries to hold a summit between the two leaders and to facilitate peacekeeping efforts after an eventual truce, according to people in Beijing and Washington familiar with the matter.

The offer, however, is being met with skepticism in the U.S. and Europe, given deep concerns over the increasingly close ties between Beijing and Moscow.

On Wednesday, Trump said he had engaged with Putin directly to resolve the conflict. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said he had a “lengthy and highly productive phone call" with Putin and both leaders agreed to visit each other’s countries and to open immediate talks to end the war in Ukraine. “I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!" he wrote.

Trump later told reporters in the Oval Office that he and Putin will “meet also probably in Saudi Arabia the first time," though he didn’t specify when.

The Chinese offer, notably, envisions a U.S.-Russian summit without the involvement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, according to the people in Beijing and Washington. The prospect of the U.S. negotiating the future of Ukraine and of European security with Russia and China is contrary to the West’s longstanding pledge to include Ukraine in any talks to decide its future.

The White House declined to confirm whether it had received China’s offer, but still rejected it. “Not viable at all," a White House official said.

Asked about the proposal, the Chinese Embassy spokesman in Washington said he wasn’t aware of it, while adding: “We hope parties will work for de-escalation and strive for political settlement."

Trump had said that he aimed to end the Ukraine-Russia war in his first 24 hours as president. Now, the administration says it will do so within its first 100 days.

U.S. officials blamed the delayed timeline on China’s support of Russia, which has allowed Moscow to keep fighting and resist international pressure for a cease-fire. Russia’s war efforts have also been backed by Iran and North Korea.

Vice President JD Vance, Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, retired Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg and a host of senior U.S. officials are heading to Europe this week to discuss the conflict with leaders there. Vance is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, expected to be the first public outline of the U.S. position for negotiations, administration officials said.

Two senior European officials said that Kellogg has told European diplomats that he aims to present Trump with options to end the war as soon as possible.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has resulted in hundreds of thousands of military and civilian casualties. Russia has shown little inclination to end the fighting as it makes slow but steady progress on the battlefield. Russian officials reiterated this week that the war will continue until all of Moscow’s goals are met, including further territorial gains, and the emergence of a neutral, militarily weak Ukraine.

In virtual remarks to business leaders at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last month, Trump said, “Hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine." Some China experts in Washington said the American leader might use threats of tariffs on Chinese imports as leverage to get leader Xi Jinping to assist in resolving the conflict.

China’s offer reflects Xi’s desire to engage in negotiations with Trump to avert a broad economic assault by the Trump administration.

However, Xi doesn’t want any help in ending the war to compromise China’s close relationship with Russia, say the people familiar with Beijing’s thinking. The Chinese proposal doesn’t include any commitment from Beijing to reduce its enormous economic support for Moscow.

Soon before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Beijing declared that its friendship with Moscow had “no limits." Nonetheless, some policy advisers in China questioned whether Beijing was wise to align itself so closely with Russia, given how deeply intertwined the Chinese economy is with the West.

But as the war went on, Beijing forged stronger economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow, becoming a crucial lifeline for the Kremlin amid Western sanctions.

Indeed, on the day of Trump’s inauguration last month, the Chinese leader held a call with Putin in which the two leaders pledged to further deepen ties. Russian state news agency TASS reported Monday that Xi will travel to Moscow in May to attend the annual commemorations of the defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Since Xi was anointed China’s leader in late 2012, he and Putin have met in person more than 40 times.

“The personal relationship at the top cancels out heartburn in the Chinese bureaucracy over the cost" of Beijing’s alignment with Moscow, said Rick Waters, managing director for China at the political-risk consulting firm Eurasia Group and a former senior China official at the State Department.

“So Beijing is likely to offer Trump concessions that are more tactical, including a summit with Putin or involvement in post-ceasefire stabilization regimes," Waters said. “It will not pressure Putin to get to a cease-fire."

Beijing’s reluctance to distance itself from Moscow has undermined its credibility in the West and could limit any role it can play toward getting Russia to back down.

In Europe, Beijing’s support for Russia has produced deep skepticism about its intentions. Some top European officials have said they believe Beijing is comfortable with a protracted conflict that drains the U.S. and Europe of military resources and deepens Russia’s dependence on Beijing.

Yet at various points, top officials in Berlin and Paris have also said that China could be a key part of a durable peace plan because of the leverage it has on Moscow. As a result, Europe wouldn’t entirely dismiss Chinese participation in a peace deal and even a presence in enforcing such an agreement.

Part of China’s proposal to assist a Russia-Ukraine peace deal involves Beijing acting as a “guarantor" by sending peacekeeping troops to the region, the people familiar said.

However, concern has grown in Europe over a potential great-power deal that ignores the demands of Kyiv. Any China-led trilateral summit with Putin and Trump is likely to fuel those concerns, with many European officials believing that Trump could sideline European interests as some kind of grand bargain with Beijing.

European officials have said consistently that any peace negotiations must include Ukrainian and European leaders, whose security would be directly affected.

Ukrainian officials, while recognizing Beijing’s sway over Moscow, have expressed wariness about any Chinese efforts to help end the war.

Zelensky last year accused China of undermining a Ukrainian-led peace summit in Switzerland. He has also echoed Trump’s promise of “peace through strength," saying that the best way to get Russia to halt its invasion would be for the West to provide additional military support to Kyiv and sanction Russia to weaken its war machine.

Xi has reasons to try to help Trump end the war in Ukraine. During his first presidential term, which started in 2017, Trump delayed trade action on China for a year while he sought Xi’s help in restraining North Korea.

Now, faced with the worst economic downturn in decades, the Chinese leader would like to get Trump in a dealmaking mood to defer further trade and other economic actions aimed at China. So far, the Trump administration has slapped 10% additional tariffs on Chinese products for China’s role in the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. The president promised to hit China with tariffs as high as 60%.

Write to Lingling Wei at Lingling.Wei@wsj.com, Alexander Ward at alex.ward@wsj.com and Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com