Midterm election campaigns don’t carry the weight of a presidential election, but ignoring them would be a mistake for investors.
Democrats are heavily favored to take control of at least the House of Representatives in this November’s midterms. Prediction market Kalshi gives them an 86% chance of winning the House. The Senate math is harder for the Democratic Party, which would need to pick up at least four seats to win majority control. Kalshi gives the Democrats a 48% chance of taking the Senate.