Donald Trump shows that he is determined to pummel Mexico

Trump also started following through on his threat to deport “millions” of people who entered the United States illegally.
Trump also started following through on his threat to deport “millions” of people who entered the United States illegally.

Summary

The United States’ southern neighbour is bracing for a wave of deportees and trapped migrants

More than any other country, Donald Trump went after Mexico on his first day in office. He ordered its criminal gangs to be designated as foreign terrorist organisations (FTOs), declared an emergency at the southern border, reinstated policies that leave migrants languishing on Mexican soil and ordered federal institutions to call the Gulf of Mexico the “Gulf of America". He broke his promise to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and Canada on “day one", but ordered an investigation of trade imbalances and rambled about a new date for imposing tariffs, February 1st.

His most unprecedented move was to kickstart the process of labelling Mexico’s gangs as FTOs. Mr Trump is the first president ever to do so, although others, including Barack Obama, considered it. Republican officials argue that by trafficking fentanyl into the United States, the gangs have killed more Americans than groups like Islamic State and Hamas, which do have fto status. State Department officials must now draw up a list of which groups to include.

The designation matters, says Cecilia Farfán-Méndez of the University of California, San Diego. American officials already have the power to pursue gangs and those who support them under the Kingpin Act, but an FTO designation gives them additional powers to investigate and prosecute people. This is a good thing, says Eduardo Guerrero of Lantia, a consultancy, as it provides better ways to target people—many of them American—who sell radios, vehicles or guns to the gangs. But it creates new risks for businesses operating in Mexico and migrants passing through it, since most make payments to the gangs for security or transport, even if unwittingly.

The designation also paves the way for the United States to take unilateral military action in Mexico. In theory, the circumstances which permit this are extremely limited; doing so would deeply strain the two countries’ relationship. Mexican officials are comforted by Marco Rubio, Mr Trump’s secretary of state, saying that he favours co-operation with Mexico. But the idea of unilateral military action is no longer fringe. On January 20th, when asked whether he might send special forces to Mexico to “take [the gangs] out", Mr Trump replied: “Could happen. Stranger things have happened."çΩ CBP One, an app that allowed migrants to make asylum appointments, was shut down on January 20th. Humanitarian parole, which allowed Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans and Haitians who meet certain requirements to stay in the United States for up to two years without either an asylum application or a visa, was ended too. Mr Trump reinstated Remain in Mexico, a policy from his first term which requires asylum-seekers to wait in Mexico for their hearings, and which the Biden administration had ended. His declaration of an emergency helps him to seal the border, including by deploying the army. One thousand five hundred troops have already been sent south.

Mr Trump also started following through on his threat to deport “millions" of people who entered the United States illegally; some 5m of them are Mexican. The border town of Tijuana has declared its own state of emergency, fearing being overwhelmed by a mixture of stranded migrants and Mexican deportees. Both are fodder for criminal gangs, who make billions from charging people to be smuggled across the border.

On January 21st Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, offered a measured response. She insisted that Mexico would collaborate on tackling gangs, nodded at co-operation on migration, and said that “the whole world" bar the United States’ federal government would continue to call the Gulf of Mexico by its name. During Mr Trump’s first term, Mexico became a holding ground for migrants of all nationalities while their claims to asylum in the United States were processed. Ms Sheinbaum said Mexico would not do so again, but that it would help any migrant on its territory.

Mr Trump’s orders were expected, says a Mexican official. Mexico has been preparing to receive deportees, and has pledged to give 2,000 pesos ($100) to each to make their way home. Officials hope that Ms Sheinbaum’s approach to tackling the gangs will forestall military action. A recent series of raids on fentanyl labs are offerings meant to placate.

But Lila Abed, head of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Centre, a think-tank in Washington, worries that the Mexican government’s plans are not comprehensive enough. Mexican officials are only now starting to have formal contact with the Trump team. The next two weeks are likely to see a flurry of activity to try to ward off the tariffs that Mr Trump has said will come on February 1st, and the preparation of tariffs of its own in case a response is needed.

Mexican officials say they still hope reason will prevail. “If they want to shoot themselves in the foot, there is not much we can do about it," says one. Mexicans are rallying behind Ms Sheinbaum. Her approval ratings have soared to 78%. Mr Trump’s plans, if carried out in full, will not just hurt Mexico and the United States; they will not achieve his aims. Illegal migration will probably spike if legitimate routes into the United States are shut down. Mr Trump’s impatience to pummel Mexico may well backfire.

Correction (January 23rd 2025): An earlier version of this article said that Mexican officials had not yet spoken with the Trump administration. In fact they first made contact on January 21st. This has been changed.

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