Elections this week will show how unpopular Donald Trump really is
New York will make headlines. But keep an eye on New Jersey and Virginia, too
The American political calendar rarely pauses to breathe. Off-cycle elections, however, offer a helpful sense-check. These contests are held in odd-numbered years and draw the smallest share of voters across the fewest states. But despite the small sample size they have a knack for hinting at what might come next.
On Tuesday voters in New York will elect their next mayor. And in California a proposal to redraw congressional districts mid-decade, called Proposition 50, will decide how well Democrats can compete with Republican redistricting schemes. But the most telling results will come from gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, two states that voted similarly in 2024 but may now be drifting in opposite directions. The results there will offer clues about the political weather before the midterms in November 2026.
Since Donald Trump burst onto the political stage, the election for Virginia’s governor has served as a national bellwether. In 2017 Ralph Northam, a Democrat, won by 8.9 points. The following year Democrats won the popular vote for the House of Representatives by 8.6 points. In 2021 Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, captured the governorship by 1.9 points, ahead of a 2.7-point Republican win in the House the next year. Analysis of YouGov’s polling for The Economist suggests voters in the state have a dim view of Mr Trump, with an estimated approval rating of minus 13.9 among those who voted in 2024.
Loudoun County, an affluent enclave outside Washington, DC, will offer a telling gauge of the suburban mood on election night. Joe Biden, who won suburban voters nationally by eight points in 2020, swept Loudoun by 25 points that year. But just a year later, propelled by culture-war politics, Mr Youngkin cut into that margin heavily. His result foreshadowed Kamala Harris’s struggles in 2024. When early results on election night last November showed her leading in Loudoun County by just 16 points (roughly her final tally), many observers accepted for the first time that she was on track to lose. Moderate suburbanites who had recoiled from Mr Trump during his first term had drifted back. Loudoun’s returns on Tuesday will reveal whether the pendulum has swung back the other way.
Recent polling averages suggest Democrats in Virginia may overperform their 2024 vote. The race has been disrupted by controversy after leaked text messages showed the Democratic candidate for attorney-general wishing violence on a Republican colleague. Despite the episode Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic nominee for governor, has been ahead in every single poll conducted since Labour Day and leads by 9.6 points on average.
Suburban doubts about Democrats were one reason the party lost the presidency last year. Hispanic voters’ rightward shift was another. In 2020 Mr Biden won Hispanic voters by 26 points. Ms Harris mustered a mere eight-point margin. Ten months into Mr Trump’s presidency, polling suggests his support among Hispanic voters has collapsed, however. Since January, while his net approval among white voters has fallen by 17 percentage points, his support among Hispanics has fallen 28 points (see chart).
On Tuesday night, Passaic County in northern New Jersey will offer a test of whether that polling slump results in an erosion of Republican votes in the race for governor. The state’s population is more than a fifth Hispanic; Passaic’s figure is about 43%. The county swung 19 points to the right in 2024, voting for a Republican presidential nominee for the first time in 32 years.
Recent polling suggests that Hispanic voters in New Jersey have cooled not only on Mr Trump but on local Republicans. In two state polls, Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic candidate for governor, enjoys a nearly 30-point margin among Hispanics over her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli, whom Mr Trump has endorsed. But the race overall remains stubbornly close. Across the past six non-partisan polls, Ms Sherrill leads by an average of about five points, a narrow enough margin that small polling errors or turnout shifts could prove decisive.
Off-cycle elections might also reflect enthusiasm rather than persuasion. In 2021, 43% fewer voters participated in New Jersey’s gubernatorial election than the preceding presidential election, and 26% fewer in Virginia. Democrats hope that anger with Mr Trump will mobilise their base this time around. Barack Obama has been dispatched to the two states to generate enthusiasm. But disapproval of Mr Trump is particularly strong among young people, who are less reliable voters than their elders.
Polls dominate assumptions about voter sentiment, but this week’s elections will be the last big opportunity to gauge the outlook of actual voters before the midterms. Polling indicates patience with Mr Trump has worn thin. What this portends for Democrats will be somewhat clearer on Tuesday night.
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