Fate of Gaza cease-fire talks hangs on two hard-liners: Netanyahu and Sinwar

Netanyahu, who faced criticism within Israel over the security and intelligence failures around Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack that sparked the war, has seen his polling numbers sink then stabilize as the conflict drags on, despite the international pressure that is piling on him. He is now concerned about the possibility that the International Criminal Court could indict him for alleged war crimes, an outcome he has rejected as an assault on Israel’s right to self-defense. Stopping the fighting risks a political reckoning that could eventually push him from power.

Sinwar, who Israel believes is hiding in Hamas’s tunnels deep underneath Gaza, has so far survived Israel’s heavy bombardment and believes he can hold out even if Israel launches its threatened assault on the city of Rafah, according to Arab negotiators dealing with him and analysts. He too could be indicted by the ICC. And his ultimate aim is to secure the release of hundreds if not thousands of Palestinian prisoners in a swap for the hostages and secure a deal to definitively end the war to ensure Hamas’s survival. Sinwar is expected to reject any deal that doesn’t include a credible path to ending the war.

The calculations of both men, hard-liners whose war strategy has left them little room to reach a compromise, pose a challenge for the Biden administration, which has been working to free the hostages and secure a cease-fire. Biden, under pressure within his own party over the death and destruction in Gaza, is facing a tight re-election bid in November and discord on U.S. college campuses as students protest Israel’s war in Gaza.

Negotiations over a possible cease-fire deal are at a critical point. The Israeli government has said it plans to move into Rafah, a city at the southern edge of the Gaza Strip where more than a million Palestinian civilians are sheltering. Rafah’s border crossing with Egypt is also a lifeline bringing humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza, many of whom are on the edge of starvation. Netanyahu says the operation is necessary to destroy Hamas’s remaining military forces in the area.

Mediators say dealing with both Netanyahu and Sinwar is a difficult task. The Israeli prime minister wants to extend his decadeslong run as one of Israel’s most dominant leaders. A polarizing figure, he survived nationwide protests last year against his attempt to diminish the independence of the judiciary and faces a continuing trial on corruption charges that he denies. Recent polls show that a majority of Israelis want him to resign, but he likely believes his chances of political survival have improved since the early days of the war, analysts say.

“He only has one aim and that’s his political survival and that dictates everything. And that means there won’t be any cease-fire-hostage deal if it’s up to him," said Alon Pinkas, a former senior Israeli diplomat. “He’s in a bind right now."

Sinwar, who learned Hebrew during his two decades in Israeli prison and was freed in a previous prisoner exchange, has led Hamas in Gaza during a period in which it has built up its forces and strengthened ties with Iran. Since launching the Oct. 7 attack he too has appeared to defy the odds, holding out as the Israeli military launched thousands of artillery and airstrikes on Gaza. Though Hamas’s forces have been battered by the Israeli offensive, he likely believes he and his organization can hold out for months and even years of conflict, analysts say.

“Time, tunnels and hostages [are] giving Sinwar the feeling that he doesn’t have to [do a deal]," said Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, referring to the military advantage that the large underground network of tunnels has been for Hamas and its ability to fight an insurgency.

Netanyahu earlier this week said Israel would launch its Rafah operation, aimed at destroying remaining Hamas forces there, whether Israel accepts a cease-fire or not. In talks with officials in Cairo, Israeli negotiators have also quietly walked back a pledge to hold talks over a possible long-term cease-fire, Egyptian officials said. The Israeli prime minister’s office declined to comment.

Netanyahu, who is also under pressure from ultranationalist coalition partners, said he would not accept any deal that ends the war, arguing that a long-term truce would allow Hamas to survive. Israeli and American intelligence officials and military analysts say the group is likely to survive the war regardless of whether the operation takes place.

The comments, along with issues arising in the negotiations in Cairo, have dimmed some of the optimism that arose last week after Egyptian intelligence officials returned from Israel with a new proposal for a cease-fire following talks with Israeli officials. The proposed deal, similar to previous proposals, calls for an initial period of calm of up to 40 days in which Hamas would release up to 33 hostages, with the possible negotiation of a long-term cease-fire to follow.

The U.S. and other Western powers have warned Israel against launching any major military operation in Rafah without a credible plan to protect the many civilians who have fled there during the war.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken, visiting Israel on Wednesday, reiterated that it was on Hamas to accept the cease-fire deal that is currently on the table. Asked about the Israeli prime minister’s threats to attack Rafah regardless, he said Netanyahu could speak for himself.

“Hamas will have to make its own judgments," about the threats on Rafah, he told reporters at the port of Ashdod.

Another Hamas leader, Osama Hamdan, who is based in Lebanon and acts as a spokesman for the militant group, said the negotiations would come to a halt if Israel attacked Rafah. “The resistance does not negotiate under fire," he told Lebanon’s Al-Manar TV, a station affiliated with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Netanyahu is also facing domestic pressure to reach a deal to free some of the 129 hostages taken on Oct. 7 who remain in Gaza. Protests in recent weeks have grown angrier as families become more desperate with hostage families blocking a major Tel Aviv highway on Thursday morning demanding to free their relatives.

A poll from Israel’s public broadcaster Kan found that 54% of respondents support a deal that would free 30 Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Some 53% said Netanyahu isn’t doing enough to ensure the release of the hostages.

Israel’s positive response to the most recent cease-fire proposal after a period of quiet in the negotiations was surprising but there is also a worry that Israel’s current approach to the negotiations could be a way for Netanyahu to buy time and then raise issues when it gets down to the details, said an official briefed on the talks.

There is deep frustration among negotiators from previous rounds of talks when it was felt that Netanyahu opposed any deal, the official said, adding that at times progress made with Israeli technical teams in Qatar amounted to nothing after the Israeli government wouldn’t give its approval.

“If Sinwar says yes, that will create probably the most difficult political moment for [Netanyahu’s] coalition since the beginning of the war," and could bring down the government, said Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute.

Shayndi Raice, Summer Said and Fatima AbdulKarim contributed to this article.

Write to Jared Malsin at jared.malsin@wsj.com