HONG KONG—President Trump’s use of military force in Venezuela and Iran reinforces a view long held in Beijing: The U.S. will use all means necessary to assert American dominance around the world—a posture that threatens China’s core interests.
Trump’s extraordinary military gamble in the Middle East, following fast on the heels of his decapitation of the Maduro government in Venezuela, reinforces Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s longstanding view that the U.S. must be approached with toughness.
But underlying China’s hard-nosed stance is a belief that the U.S. could ultimately weaken itself with such interventions.
For Xi, the goal is a relationship with the U.S. “that’s not unnecessarily conflictual,” said Joseph Torigian, an associate professor at American University in Washington and expert on Xi’s life and leadership. “You use that time to harden yourself so that if there’s another go-around in the trade war or ultimately a crisis over the Taiwan Strait, you’re even stronger than you were before.”
The U.S. president has publicly embraced the idea that China is the world’s only other superpower, suggesting that he and Xi could work together to resolve global issues.
But Trump’s recent assaults on Iran and Venezuela—both Chinese allies and key suppliers of oil for its energy-hungry economy—could reaffirm Beijing’s mistrust of Washington.
Moreover, on Wednesday, the Trump administration launched new tariff investigations that could result in fresh levies on Chinese imports. That news could threaten the uneasy detente Xi and Trump struck last fall that paused a fierce trade war between the two superpowers.
Trump has said the war on Iran is aimed at destroying Iran’s navy, missile stocks and nuclear program, which he said posed a threat to its neighbors and to the U.S. He has expressed disdain for previous U.S. wars abroad that have devolved into quagmires, promising that the country wouldn’t get bogged down in such conflicts under his leadership.
He says his tariff policy is aimed at addressing trade imbalances that undermine the U.S. economy.
Trump’s decision to play hardball on the world stage could shape the summit planned between the two leaders in Beijing in a few weeks, with American actions on both geopolitics and trade potentially inducing Xi to take a tough line in the talks.
From the start of Trump’s second term, Xi showed his willingness to stand up to Washington, hitting back hard against the president’s early assault on trade.
After returning to the Oval Office last year, Trump launched a global tariff war on rivals and trade partners alike. But he reserved the harshest tariffs—as much as 145%—for China.
Xi didn’t back down. Instead, he imposed retaliatory tariffs and weaponized China’s dominance of the production of rare-earth elements, which are critical to many advanced technologies, including those with military applications. Trump quickly unwound his tariffs.
Now, in the coming summit, as Trump has pushed for a trade deal, Xi has sensed an opportunity to seek U.S. concessions on Taiwan, the American security partner that China claims as its own territory and has promised to take by force if necessary. China is expected to go into the summit seeking to chip away at American support for the island.
“The key issue on the Chinese side is the Taiwan issue,” said Wang Yiwei, a professor of international affairs at Renmin University in Beijing and a former Chinese diplomat. “We need President Trump to openly condemn Taiwan independence to make the relationship more stable.”
China appears to have an opening with Trump. The U.S. president said in February that he had discussed with Xi a coming arms sale to Taiwan, breaking with a policy set in the Reagan administration to not consult with Beijing on such sales. The arms package is now in limbo.
Meanwhile, the Iran war could create some immediate advantages for China in a potential conflict over Taiwan. The Trump administration has relocated key military resources to the Middle East and is burning through large stocks of key weapons.
Still, the extent and longevity of those gains are unclear. Analysts say Xi is unlikely to try to launch an attack on Taiwan just because of the U.S. war on Iran.
“Xi has not in the last 13 years demonstrated a tendency towards recklessness,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute. “Calculated risk-taking, yes. But recklessness? He’s not once demonstrated it. To go to war potentially with the U.S. over Taiwan, on the assumption that Americans will run out of ammunition in a relatively short period, would be pretty reckless.”
More broadly, the U.S. actions and the spiraling conflict likely confirm Xi’s deeply held belief that to project strength, China must insulate itself from risks at home and abroad, a posture that makes concessions more difficult.
Xi’s success in reducing China’s economic vulnerabilities—and squeezing those chokepoints it controls—has strengthened his hand in negotiations with Trump.
The widening Iran war, for instance, hits at one of China’s longest-standing concerns—its reliance on foreign energy. The war in Iran has sent oil prices soaring and largely closed off the Strait of Hormuz.
China has worked to mitigate this liability, by building up its strategic oil reserve in recent months and pushing a long-term shift to renewable energy and electric vehicles. But roughly 45% of China’s oil imports still flow through the Strait of Hormuz, and a long-term stoppage could create a significant drag on its slowing economy. Still, Tehran is letting its own tankers, which largely carry oil bound for China, sail safely through the Strait.
In addition to oil, Xi is concerned about the advanced chips needed for artificial intelligence. The U.S. has limited China’s access to the most advanced chips and tools for their design and manufacture.
Xi is likely to push Trump to ease those restrictions—and stands ready to choke off the flow of rare earths once again to gain leverage.
“The broader view of Xi Jinping is you can’t be vulnerable to any strategic chokeholds,” said Torigian. “That’s why he cares so much about chips. That’s why he cares so much about creating chokeholds that make other people vulnerable. It’s so that you don’t have a crisis in the first place, but when you do, then you’re ready for it.”
Write to Austin Ramzy at austin.ramzy@wsj.com