Fresh from Middle East victory, Trump sets his sights on peace in Ukraine

Now Europeans are hoping Trump can repeat the success with another knotty foreign-policy problem.

Trump will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on Friday, according to officials familiar with the plans, on the heels of his diplomatic victory tour in the Middle East. At his stops in Israel and Egypt, Trump referenced the continuing war between Russia and Ukraine, underscoring how, as he touted his achievements on one major conflict, he has still set his sights on resolving another.

The two wars are vastly different. In the 2022 Russian invasion and Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, respectively, Ukraine and Israel both faced unprovoked attacks that triggered the wars. But in the Middle East, Israel proved itself to be the dominant regional military force, while in Europe, it is Russia that remains a major global power with a sizable nuclear arsenal.

Senior U.S. and European officials caution that neither Russia nor Ukraine will change their war strategies over Trump’s initial success in the Middle East. They also point out that a longer-term deal to bring lasting peace to Gaza is far from certain.

But they still hope the U.S. president can seize on the momentum of the diplomatic victory—and draw the right lessons to revive efforts to bring Russian President Vladimir Putin back to the negotiating table.

“This gives Trump enormous leverage to solve other major conflicts," said Fred Fleitz, who was a senior National Security Council official during the first term. “He’s now proven himself as an effective arbiter and peacemaker."

Trump joined other world leaders at a summit in Egypt.

Zelensky himself waded in on Monday. “Putin can be forced into peace—just like any other terrorist. Even Hamas is now preparing to release hostages. If that is possible, then Putin can also be forced to restore peace," he said in a social-media post.

If Trump can draw any lesson from the Israel-Hamas deal to apply to the Ukraine war, senior European officials said, it boils down to one word: Pressure.

After Israel’s airstrike on Hamas operatives in Doha, Trump pressured Benjamin Netanyahu to accept his 20-point peace plan and compelled him to publicly apologize to Qatar’s leader. Qatar, Egypt and Turkey, meanwhile, increased pressure on Hamas by threatening to cut diplomatic avenues to the group and strip it of its diplomatic cover if it didn’t accept the proposed peace plan. This was all while Israel continued a renewed military assault on Gaza despite mounting international backlash over its conduct of the war that has left over 67,000 Palestinians dead, according to the local health ministry. The figure doesn’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Trump hasn’t yet brought the same pressure to bear on Putin. Ukraine and its allies in Europe are hoping that will change now that Trump has seen the fruits of his success as a dealmaker in the Middle East—and as his impatience with Russia mounts, following months of failed negotiations.

Trump has slapped steep tariffs on India, a major Russian trading partner, but so far hasn’t issued any major new sanctions or secondary sanctions on Russia. European officials said increasing financial penalties on Russia is crucial at this stage in the war, when its economy is on the brink of crisis but also transitioning to a full-scale wartime economy.

Trump is also yet to target Moscow’s so-called “shadow fleet" of illicit oil tankers it uses to try to bypass price caps on Russian oil to generate more revenue for its war machine.

“It was pressure that caused Hamas to come to the negotiating table, and we have not had similar pressure on Russia yet," said Kurt Volker, a former U.S. ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization who was Trump’s Ukraine envoy during his first term.

Ukraine is also pushing Trump to provide it with Tomahawk cruise missiles. One of the most precise missiles in the U.S. arsenal, Tomahawks have a range of around 1,500 miles, which would allow Kyiv to strike targets in Moscow with far more force than its long-range drones are able to deliver. The Trump administration recently agreed to provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range missile strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure.

Trump said he was open to the idea of sending Kyiv more long-range missiles but hasn’t yet committed. “I might talk to him," Trump said of Putin as he flew to the Middle East on Sunday night. “I might say, look, if this war is not settled I’m going to send them Tomahawks."

Even as Russia’s military founders in a relative stalemate on the drone-laden front lines of eastern Ukraine, it remains a significant military superpower.

Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based defense analyst, said the Kremlin’s military might means there is a limit on the leverage Trump can use to bring Russia to the negotiating table.

“The fact that Russia has a nuclear arsenal will always be a factor in any pressure campaign," Gady said. “The United States has not really shown any desire to trigger any escalatory dynamics."

More likely, Gady said, is that Trump could negotiate a cease-fire agreement directly with Putin, and then try to strong-arm Zelensky into signing it—a possibility that European leaders have feared and tried to prevent.

“This scenario would reflect Trump’s history of high-profile, unilateral diplomacy and his willingness to pressure Zelensky toward agreements not fully aligned with European and Ukrainian objectives," Gady said.

Another complicating factor in the Russia-Ukraine war that Trump didn’t have to navigate in his Middle East peace drive is China, which has emerged as Russia’s major economic and political lifeline. The U.S. maintains close ties with Qatar, Egypt and Turkey—the Middle Eastern powers that helped get the Gaza peace plan over the finish line by turning the screws on Hamas. The same can’t be said for China, the U.S.’s arch geopolitical rival and a world superpower in its own right.

Trump threatened China with new 100% tariffs on Friday in a row over Beijing’s export controls on critical minerals, but may still meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea later this month despite the flare-up in tensions. “Lines of communication have reopened, so we’ll see where it goes," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Fox Business Network on Monday. “I believe that meeting will still be on."

Current and former officials said that Russia’s increasing reliance on China means Beijing could play a productive role in bringing Putin to any peace deal—if Trump can convince it to play ball, that is.

“If we come to a point where China feels that it’s in its interest for Russia to end the war, and they tell Russia that, that would be significant," said Volker. “Unfortunately we are not there.

Write to Robbie Gramer at robbie.gramer@wsj.com and Ian Lovett at ian.lovett@wsj.com