Gulf Arab states and U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates spent the past few years betting that it was safer to be on friendly terms with a hostile Iran rather than confront it.
The bet didn’t work out.
This past week, Iran responded to U.S. and Israeli attacks by launching roughly 1,400 ballistic missiles and drones at the United Arab Emirates alone, according to government figures, and hundreds more at the other Gulf Cooperation Council countries of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The strikes targeted everything from U.S. military bases to critical infrastructure like oil installations and civilian targets like residential buildings and airports. At least three people have died in the U.A.E.
On Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized for the waves of attacks. “I deem it necessary to apologize to neighboring countries that were attacked,” he said on state TV. He said the armed forces had been told to no longer attack neighbors unless attacked first.
But it was far from clear if Iran would stop. A drone exploded near Dubai’s airport, forcing the temporary suspension of flights. Saudi Aramco’s Berri oil field was targeted Saturday by a drone, likely from Iran, Saudi officials familiar with the matter said. Saudi officials also said two ballistic missiles headed to a U.S. base were downed and four drones heading for the Shaybah oil field were intercepted. And Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had launched a drone attack on a U.S. base in the U.A.E.
The attacks, even if they subside, could scramble the diplomatic calculus across the Gulf for years to come.
The Iranian strikes even targeted countries that had explicitly tried to stay friendly, including Oman, which was leading negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, and Qatar, which last year brokered the U.S.-Israel-Iran cease-fire. Earlier this week, Qatari F-15 jets downed two Russian-made Iranian bombers only miles from the Qatari coast.
Iran’s bet in launching the attacks is that a wave of terror and the prospect of long-term economic damage from regional instability will push Gulf states to press the Americans and Israelis to stop the campaign sooner rather than later, giving the regime in Tehran breathing space. Even if it slows down the barrage, Iran knows Gulf states will remain fearful of another surge in attacks at any moment.
But it will come at a cost. Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. that were on the verge of war with Iran in 2019 won’t take kindly to being attacked and will likely draw closer to the U.S. for security. The U.A.E. is now weighing freezing billions of dollars of Iranian assets held in the Gulf state, The Wall Street Journal has reported, a move that could sever one of Tehran’s most important economic lifelines.
Dubai has for years functioned as a financial hub for Iranian businesses and individuals seeking a haven from Western sanctions, according to analysts tracking Tehran’s activities and the U.S. Treasury. Iran’s sanctions-evasion infrastructure has allowed Tehran to keep selling oil abroad and use the proceeds to fund weapons programs and regional proxies, they say.
Those weapons are now being used against the Gulf and Dubai itself.
Gulf states will likely conclude that their de-escalation approach to Iran has failed, said Allison Minor, a Middle East expert at the Atlantic Council. “I don’t see how you cannot draw that conclusion given how hard they’ve been hit,” she said.
The GCC countries labeled the Iranian attacks “treacherous” and vowed to remain united in defending themselves.
Iran’s apology on Saturday could reflect any number of considerations, said Bader al-Saif, a professor at the University of Kuwait. Its leaders could be wary of drawing their rich neighbors into the conflict and may feel they have already sent a strong signal to Gulf states. Iran could also be running low on missile stocks. Or, Pezeshkian’s apology could be doublespeak aimed at obscuring Iran’s intentions, he said. He praised Gulf states for their restraint.
Other analysts agreed. “This is a familiar pattern with Iran: Push the envelope, test the limits and then start floating de-escalation and off-ramps once the danger of escalation becomes real,” said Anne Dreazen, a former Pentagon official and vice president of the American Jewish Committee’s Center for a New Middle East.
President Trump said Iran’s apology reflected that it was losing the fight. Trump had said the attacks on Iran’s neighbors were “the biggest surprise” of the conflict so far and could draw Gulf states to join the U.S. and Israeli attack.
Most analysts say that remains unlikely, especially if Iran scales back its barrages. For many in the Gulf, the strikes have also underscored the enduring risks of their proximity to Iran, which was why Gulf states decided to try rapprochement in the first place.
If the current U.S. campaign doesn’t end in regime change or a change in Iran’s behavior, countries such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar could be forced to live with the consequences of a wounded and resentful but still dangerous adversary.
“The U.S., and this administration in particular, has a short attention span. They could leave, and we are stuck here,” said al-Saif. “Some of our countries sit only a few miles from Iran.”
Even so, the attacks will have inflamed old tensions. Saudi Arabia has long feared Iran and viewed it as a rival for regional dominance. Ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran were cut in 2016 after the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was overrun amid protests over the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric by the Saudi government. In the years that followed, they backed opposite sides in conflicts ranging from Syria to Yemen.
In 2019, attacks on tankers in the Gulf and a drone and missile attack on Saudi oil installations blamed on Iran nearly led to war. But the U.S. refused to get involved. The Saudis and Emiratis decided long-term confrontation with Tehran wasn’t worth it. They chose to de-escalate, and restored full diplomatic relations in 2022 and 2023.
The Gulf states refused to allow the U.S. to use any of its bases on Gulf soil or airspace in the region for the strikes, hoping to avoid fallout from any confrontation between Iran and the U.S. and Israel.
The conflict has stunned many residents in Gulf countries, many of whom have never come under such intense attacks before and have few bomb shelters or early warning systems. Drones caused a fire at one of Dubai’s fanciest hotels, explosions at its famous palm-shaped island and panic at its airport jeopardizing its image as a peaceful and prosperous sanctuary in a tough neighborhood. Qatar shut down its liquid natural gas exports after Iranian drones targeted key facilities.
For now, that psychological shock is likely to push those countries closer to the U.S. for for security cooperation and reassurance, so long as the U.S. remains committed to the region, said Dreazen.
What happens in the Gulf countries matters. Not only are they major suppliers of oil to global markets, but leading sources of money for investment in areas like technology and artificial intelligence. They have also remained U.S. allies and steered away from radical Islam, a moderate course that has delivered prosperity for their residents rather than pariah status. Two of them, the U.A.E. and Bahrain, established diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020.
For now, the Gulf countries are likely to try to keep playing a delicate geopolitical dance by avoiding choosing sides outright and keep a foot in both camps: rely on the U.S. for intelligence and defense but keep talking to Iran to limit the fallout and act as a bridge between both sides.
A long war could spell disaster for the Gulf states, depriving them of oil revenue that is the lifeblood of their economies and hurting their image as a stable place to invest, said Maria Fantappie, a Middle East expert at the Istituto Affari Internazionali, a think tank in Rome. That, in turn, could disrupt the social pact between monarchies and people that limits political rights but delivers prosperity.
“If the war drags on, and the U.S. and Israel are unable to deliver a quick result, it’s fair to say the majority in the Gulf will say that regime change is not what they want. They want a quick end to this war, whatever the outcome in Tehran,” Fantappie said.
Write to David Luhnow at david.luhnow@wsj.com and Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com