Gold prices just raced across the $5,000 mark. Now J.P. Morgan thinks they can zoom past $8,000 in the years ahead.
Lately nothing seems to be able to hold gold back. The precious metal, which began the year at $4,341 an ounce, recently traded at $5,302, a 22% gain in just the first month of 2026.
On Thursday, J.P. Morgan market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou argued the metal could rally to $8,000 to $8,500 an ounce “over the coming years.” One reason is retail investors are relying more on gold instead of fixed income as a hedge against U.S. stock market declines.
Panigirtzoglou argues retail investors have soured on long-term bonds since 2022, when classic stock-and-bond portfolios such as 60/40 funds (with 60% stocks and 40% bonds) faltered. That year, the Federal Reserve sharply hiked interest rates, sending both stock and bond prices southward at once.
Investors’ frustrations were cemented last year after the market’s “Liberation Day” selloff, when the threat of Trump administration tariffs led to another stock and bond sell off, he adds.
Gold, meanwhile, has rallied steadily over the past three years—prompting disgruntled U.S. retail investors to pile into the metal through vehicles like the SPDR Gold Shares exchange-traded fund. The ETF has attracted more than $27 billion in net investor dollars in the past year, according to FactSet.
Panigirtzoglou notes that gold has already surged from about 1% of private investors’ overall portfolios a decade ago to 3% today. He projects the total will rise to 4.6% in the future. That extra demand, he suggests, would imply a “theoretical price” of $8,000 to $8,500.
Just how “theoretical” is this price target? It’s worth noting, gold’s price has nearly doubled in the past year. There is no reason to assume it can’t continue to climb. But pinning hopes for those gains on retail investors is shakier.
It’s true investors have piled into SPDR Gold Shares in the past few months. However, they might well be simply chasing hot returns, rather than making a considered long-term decision about gold’s effectiveness as a stock market hedge.
Those flows could reverse quickly if gold suffers a pullback, which seems likely given the torrid pace of price gains in 2026 so far.
What’s more, bonds—and even much maligned 60/40 funds—are poised to perform far better in 2026 than they did back in 2022, thanks to the fact the Federal Reserve has been slowly but steadily cutting rates, rather than raising them.
The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF has returned 6.6% in the past 12 months—a gain that looks decidedly pedestrian next to that of gold. But it’s exactly what retail investors expect from bond funds, making it seem unlikely they will abandon these assets in favor of something as volatile as gold.
Write to Ian Salisbury at ian.salisbury@barrons.com